RIGHTING THE SHIP OF STATE

Congress and the White House are stumbling toward a temporary deal to reopen the Federal Government and raise the national debt.

This temporary fix does not solve any of the fundamental problems with government spending, fiscal management, or health policy. All it does is pull everyone back from the brink and give them limited time to find common ground.

Washington’s spiral into chaos and crisis began years ago. It accelerated after the 2010 elections. The debris field includes not just both political parties. The faith Americans and the rest of the world have in the functionality of the Federal Government is severely damaged. It is going to take more than a “grand bargain” on the budget to repair that damage.

During the descent into madness, all combatants displayed their willingness to destroy the fundamental fabric of America’s civic culture in order to win rhetorical points during ever smaller news cycles. Politicians and pundits acted as though America was a parliamentary democracy, where a legislative defeat would bring down the government, force the resignation of public officials, and trigger new elections.

Our Founding Fathers intentionally designed America’s rules of engagement to avoid the “all or nothing” confrontations that shape British legislation. Fixed terms of office were supposed to force opponents to work together and govern instead of remain in a constant campaign. The U.S. Constitution’s brilliance and resilience stems from practicality, not idealism. That said, it is going to take an historic effort on everyone’s part to repair the damage and restore trust in our institutions of government.

Unfortunately, many involved in these recent political battles seem to want to permanently undermine these institutions of government. "We are looking for an Egyptian moment here! Enough tyranny...” trumpeted an organizer for the truckers’ protest that ended up being more bluster than reality. Other political voices are advocating continued unrest and chaos. Some now champion nullification (ignoring the rules) or a constitutional convention to completely change the rules.

During 226 years living in a Constitutional Republic, Americans have weathered terrible, corrupt, and incompetent Presidents, tolerated dysfunctional and “do nothing” Congresses, and have had to retry and overturn ill-conceived Supreme Court rulings. No matter how bad things got, Americans and their civic culture persevered without risking collapse (save for our Civil War).

It is therefore dismaying that things got so far out of hand during this recent confrontation. The level of righteous ignorance about government functions and processes, the uncivil and abusive accusations about opposing agendas, and the shrill demagogy have created a hole in the fabric of our system that will take time and creativity to repair. Record low levels of support and trust in our elected leaders and record high levels of dissatisfaction must be addressed.

One possible way to rebuild rational discourse and productive engagement is to experiment with crowd sourcing and facilitated discussion. Go to http://onlinetownhalls.com/start/90 to join in an online conservation to test out a new community engagement tool.

Online Townhalls is used by professional and business groups to aggregate opinion and facilitate consensus. In 2012, the Organization of American States (OAS) and the U.S. State Department used Online Townhalls to engage citizens in 35 nations using four languages to support the Summit of the Americas.

Here is a 7-minute video that explains how to use Online Townhalls.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LW2OLEM-qeE

Another way to learn about Online Townhalls is to follow a sample conversation based on the famous movie “Twelve Angry Men”. This tracks the jury’s consideration of trial evidence. http://onlinetownhalls.com/read/6

One online tool is only a very small step toward re-establishing sanity and decorum in our public processes. Just like after a wind storm, you start the recovery process by picking up the first downed branches. While chainsaws and a tree removal service may become part of the clean-up process, you have to start somewhere.

The recovery from our most recent political storm will take more than a few months. It will probably take years. We all must start somewhere. Your ideas are welcome! We must all pitch in. Perhaps trying out http://onlinetownhalls.com/start/90 is a good first step.

KAMIKAZE CONGRESS

Republicans in Congress are once again in a bind over how to fund the Federal Government while not acquiescing to policies and programs they dislike.

Many House Republicans want to sink Obamacare. They point to selective implementation delays, waivers, and the general erosion of public support for the program. However, House Republicans only control one of three components needed to make laws and pass a budget. Democrats hold the Senate and the White House. Any defunding of Obamacare dies in the Senate and on the President’s desk.

Threats to block continuing resolutions to fund the Federal Government revisits the sorry record of Republican led government shut downs. Except for the November 23, 1981 shutdown, ushered in by President Reagan vetoing a continuing resolution, none have ended well for Republicans.

The most infamous was the back to back shutdowns in November 1995 through January 1996. The newly resurgent Republicans wanted to flex their muscle against a President they assumed was a spent force. The GOP fully controlled the Legislative Branch for the first time since 1954. Speaker Gingrich thirsted for a budget show down that would reshape the budget battles. He failed miserably because he and House Republicans did not make their case for such brinksmanship. This flawed messaging took a bizarre turn when Gingrich went completely off topic to complain about having to sit in the rear of Air Force One on the return flight from the funeral of Israeli leader Yitzhak Rabin. Republicans now confronted the perception that the budget meltdown was about personal grudges not real policy.

After the 1995-96 shutdowns, Clinton shifted to the center for his domestic agenda, a slight victory for Republicans. However, Clinton regained his pre-1994 election momentum while Republicans faltered. It would take until the summer of 2011 for budget “hawks” to once again dominate Republican fiscal policy. During the fifteen year hiatus, Republicans lost all credibility on spending as they outdid the Democrats on appropriation earmarks, government growth, and executive branch waste. Obama has certainly added to the deficit and the growth of government, but Republicans, both in Congress and the White House, gave him a running start.

Republicans now have a dilemma of their own making. Since the budget battles of mid-2011, they have done a terrible job at making the case for cutting the size of government. Except for Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK), Republicans and their media allies have defended Defense Department spending (which is as wasteful as any domestic program), and proposed ideological cuts not management based cuts. The moment you select which sacred cows to slaughter, while protecting others, you slide onto ideological thin ice. The public’s wide spread cynicism of politics is currently hurting Republicans far more than Democrats.

The other dilemma is Republicans assailing Obamacare without proposing a viable alternative. America is the best country in the world if you need shock-trauma treatment or complex diagnostics. It falls to 30th or worse if you need chronic care or are uninsured. Demographics are driving chronic care. Americans are getting older and living longer. Medicare is already sailing over the fiscal cliff. The economy is driving the other crisis. The era of forty hour a week “W2” employment is giving way to part time “1099” jobs where benefits do not exist. A real mature discussion about standards of care, alternative treatments, and family caregiving should have occurred prior to debating the role of government. Unfortunately, the hyperpartisan environment poisoned that potential dialogue in the early 1990s. It has been a snake pit of snark and snipe ever since.

So where does this leave Republicans? Defunding Obamacare and forcing a government shut down is a “kamikaze” mission. It will only end with Republicans self-immolating. A better course of action is the following:

[1] Republicans in the House not do show up to vote on any fiscal legislation. Except for House leaders and a few other Republicans, let the Democrats casts all the votes. You establish a quorum and let the Democrats vote through the continuing resolution. That way the Democrats “own” Obamacare.

[2] If Obamacare is as dysfunctional as many now think, then it will fail on its own. President Obama, the Democrats in Congress, or their key constituencies will blink and seek ways to either fix or scrap Obamacare.

[3] Republicans spend their time and political capital developing a viable alternative to Obamacare. An aging America filled with “1099” part time workers is a reality and must be addressed. Looking for real solutions and building positive consensus around those solutions would re-energize the Republican brand as caring and rational.

[4] Republicans need to revisit Simpson-Bowles http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/ and the various reports developed by Senator Coburn. Putting forward a management based budget that addresses underlying fiscal issues would also help rebrand Republicans as caring, rational, and reasonable.

These four steps will be anathema to the “conservative” pundits and their audience of zealots. They will all rail against anything less than Republican Members crashing into public opinion. On the other hand, the rest of the 230 million voting Americans may take a second look at a rational Republican movement and reward it not only in 2014, but 2016 and beyond.

Debunking Doomsday

The drumbeats of doom are echoing across Washington, DC. Every day the apocalyptic vision of The Sequester looms larger as the clock ticks down to Midnight on February 28.

Conservatives are filling the air waves and the Internet with the horrors of how The Sequester will hollow out the Defense Department and leave America prostrate to a dangerous world. Liberals are countering with their own tales of teachers out of work, parks closed, and the social safety net torn asunder. Both sides are spewing out millions of emails detailing how The Sequester will end life as we know it and wreck America’s economy beyond repair. The media has likened The Sequester to releasing the Kraken and to an asteroid barreling towards the earth.

What is the truth behind these shrill warnings?

What is The Sequester?
In the summer of 2011, the Obama Administration, along with Democrats and Republicans in Congress, decided that the only way to break the strategic deadlock on the budget was to create The Sequester. It was the centerpiece of the Budget Control Act (BCA). It created highly prescribed cuts to the Federal Budget that were designed to be so horrific that no one would ever want them to occur.

How bad is it?
Very, very bad. The Sequester creates deep and detailed cuts to the front line services and operations of every Department and program. The cuts are intentionally designed to inflict immediate and catastrophic damage to the workings of the Executive Branch and to the American economy. This is detailed in http://citizenoversight.blogspot.com/2012/12/fiscal-flim-flam.html

So they created their own doomsday?
Yes. Strange as it may seem, America’s political leaders felt that the only way to stop political brinksmanship over the budget/debt/deficit was to create the ultimate brink. They hoped that the mutually assured destruction of everyone’s sacred cows (conservatives – Defense; liberals – domestic programs; Obama – his economic recovery) would create a spirit of compromise leading to a reasonable and balanced solution. Everything backfired.

What went wrong?
All sides in the budget/debt/deficit battle assumed a reasonable solution would only happen when the other side blinked. No one blinked. The Sequester, instead of avoiding brinksmanship, created a worse one. This is detailed in http://citizenoversight.blogspot.com/2012/12/madness.html

Can this be avoided?
Of course. Think of the iconic scene in “Blazing Saddles”. The new sheriff, when faced with angry townspeople ready to kill him, places his own gun against his head and takes himself hostage. In a low voice he screams, “Nobody move!”, while in a high voice he screams, “Help me!” He walks away from the mob and escapes to safety.

In the case of The Sequester, everyone is circling each other holding guns to their own heads. They are all threatening to shoot themselves and all are screaming for help. It is ridiculously surreal, made more so as everyone (including the media) is showing the public only the gun to the head, not the fuller picture of them doing it to themselves.

On January 1, 2013, the first Sequester deadline approached. Congress and the President simply delayed their self-imposed doomsday to the end February. They can vote to reset their own doomsday clock at any time or disable it completely.

So why don’t they?
Everyone still thinks someone else is going to blink. Democrats are “doubling down”, dismissing overspending while demanding more “investments”. The Democrats have become “debt deniers”. Former Speaker Pelosi denies there has ever been a spending problem. Senator Landrieu says spending is a fiction perpetuated by Fox News. Minority Leader Hoyer explains it is not about spending, but about paying for the spending.

Republicans are countering with warnings about America being disarmed and how the economic recovery (which they now admit may be happening) will vanish. GOP strategists are saying that they have Obama right where they want him – forced to make spending cuts to save his recovery. This is delusional. The Sequester will create so much documented pain so fast that the “debt deniers” will say, “See what happens when you cut spending. We can’t cut one dime without terrible consequences. So let’s move on to more spending and more taxes!”

Republicans are so self-involved they don’t realize they are in their own trap. This is detailed in http://citizenoversight.blogspot.com/2013/02/republican-opportunities-lost.html and http://citizenoversight.blogspot.com/2013/01/wasted-day-and-wasted-nights.html

Is there a way out?
Yes. Republicans can offer to revoke The Sequester in exchange for Obama conducting a “budget sweep”. This will immediately bring $687 billion in unexpended and unobligated funds back into the Treasury – nearly balancing the FY2013 budget. Republicans should also require a full scale review of $1.3 trillion in additional unexpended funds that reside in various accounts and reclaiming as much as is possible.

This allows everyone to declare immediate victory and eliminates The Sequester. With universal victory and The Sequester gone everyone can sober-up and consider real and lasting solutions to the budget/debt/deficit.

What are those real solutions?
The bi-partisan Simpson Bowles Report, issued on December 1, 2010, and countless other reports recommend entitlement reform as the only action that will really keep America from sailing over a real financial cliff. Such complex reform will take statesmanship instead of showmanship. It will also take time for politicians to move from combat to collaboration.

The way forward is for everyone to get used to working together by tackling less controversial matters. Think of a couch potato wanting to run the marathon. The first step is to walk a half mile and slowly build-up to running 26 miles. This newly minted athlete creates mini-milestones and celebrates them to maintain their momentum toward their larger goal.

For Democrats, they should cede to Republicans that there is at least a management problem with government that causes over spending. Republicans need to admit that this management problem exists every where, including the Defense Department. There are plenty of opportunities for mini-milestones amounting to over $650 billion a year in savings that can either be reallocated or applied to the deficit. There is something for everybody. These are detailed in http://citizenoversight.blogspot.com/2013/02/9528-opportinies-ignored.html

For Republicans, it is time to clean-up the Tax Code. Major reforms, like a Flat or Value Added Tax, are not in the cards, for now. Instead, go after the most heinous loopholes and ridiculous subsidies. Eradicating special interest tax breaks will generate upwards of $1 trillion in revenue over the next ten years without harming wage earners. In fact, Republicans could have been heroes by working on these all along, as tax legislation always starts in the House. This is detailed in http://citizenoversight.blogspot.com/2012/12/raising-revenue-responsibly.html

Is there any hope?
No. Politicians and the Media do not want to hear the truth or the solutions. The Sequester is too good a story. It helps further everyone’s myopic agendas, none of which are designed to help America or Americans. The media, both liberal and conservative, loves a countdown clock. The Sequester will generate more viewers and readers if things go poorly.

Therefore, it is time for concerned citizens to storm these citadels of cynicism with facts, before the clock strikes midnight.

Republican Opportunities Lost

This was published in RollCall

http://www.rollcall.com/news/faulkner_and_riehl_republican_opportunities_lost-222193-1.html?pg=1

By Scot Faulkner & Jonathan Riehl

Republicans are wondering how to confront President Obama’s second term “second wind”. In recent weeks, Obama has proven he is no Lame duck. His new initiatives, new appointments, and winning the word wars on the budget, have overwhelmed Republicans both in Congress and among their pundits. After ceding 789 days of political positioning to their opponents since the GOP’s 2010 victories, Republicans have now spent the first weeks of 2013 contemplating their navels while bungling opportunities to make a difference.

Only in the Republican’s parallel universe could supposedly intelligent people sift through the electoral debris of 2012 and think that their only challenge is creating better campaign ads with better media soundbites. Worse, they arrived at this epiphany after listening to political consultants, who derive their income from creating these campaign ads and soundbites. These are the same consultants who spent hundreds of millions the GOP’s money being 100% wrong in their assumptions, polls, and predictions throughout 2012.

Congressional Republicans in particular should look into the mirror to find who to blame for their current predicament.

Since decisively winning the November 2, 2010 elections, Republicans in Congress and their acolytes in the conservative media, have missed hundreds of days of opportunity to define themselves and present compelling alternative policies. The reality is that Republicans have no platform. In fact, they no longer have a coherent idea of who they are. They are also so “inbred” in their politics that they no longer see the need for making a rational case for any of their stands. There is simply no content behind their message.

The dreadful examination of Sen. Chuck Hagel is a case in point. Hectoring diatribes from fellow Republicans over the war in Iraq only perpetuate the image of conservatives unwilling to reflect on their actions in light of the facts. Never mind that as a traditional conservative, Hagel’s view on the Iraqi misadventure was much more in line with decades of conservative thinking prior to the NeoCon takeover of GOP foreign policy.

The recent Pew Survey shows Americans disapprove of Republican Congressional leadership by 66% while only 19% approved. That is a staggering 47 point negative. Gallup’s survey is equally horrific, with 25% approving and 67% disapproving for a 42 point negative gap.

These dreadful scores are only part of the problem. President Obama and Congressional Democrats are framing the Fiscal Cliff/Debt Ceiling/Budget battle in ways highly favorable to their cause while painting Republicans into a microscopic corner. This is smart rhetorical strategy, and stands to marginalize the GOP into oblivion.

Politics often comes down to defining the terms of battle, something both parties have excelled at during different moments in history. Democrats have the upper hand at this particular moment. Republicans, even moderates (those few that remain), are now called “extremists.” Democrats, even radicals, are now called “Progressives." Government spending is now called “investment,” thanks to a spin factory gem from Bill Clinton. Spending cuts of any magnitude are dismissed as damaging to America’s economic recovery. The Republican response is either mired in bureaucratic language unknowable to normal people, or piled up with hyperpartisan rhetoric that leaves no room for compromise.

As the Hagel hearing demonstrated, Republicans have been vague about government waste and the need to cut spending. They trumpet their ideology, but ideology is not governance -- and Americans continue to see the President as more competent in that task. The problem is that the GOP never issued a meaningful indictment or offered a prosecution brief. It is also sad that Republicans refuse to admit that the bureaucracy and spending at the Pentagon are as bloated as any other department. Republicans seem to fixate on shiny objects, like rows of medals on uniforms, instead of targeting wasteful spending and management at the DOD.

Perhaps this is what the psychologists call cognitive dissonance -- Republicans are now mostly unwilling to hold serious hearings on government spending or mismanagement, because many of them blindly supported Bush-era spending boondoggles both foreign and domestic. Bereft of principle, and caught in hypocrisy of their own making, Republicans have little to stand on. The GOP did not even hold hearings on Senator Tom Coburn’s annual Waste Report, a longtime staple of reasonable oversight. Only CSPAN’s BookTV gave Coburn a proper forum to discuss his exhaustive and highly credible research on government waste.

Having one party dominate policy and legislation while the other retreats into mindless and sporadic venting of anger is unhealthy for America. Those who wish to hold power accountable, and desire a reasonable dialogue on the role and cost of government in the 21st Century, must stage an intervention. The elephant is sick and its infirmity harms all of us.

NLRB's Homework Assignment

One of the reasons Washington, DC is so dysfunctional is that no one does their homework. The latest case in point, literally and figuratively, is Noel Canning v. National Labor Relations Board.

On January 25, 2013, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit unanimously ruled that President Barack Obama's three recess appointments to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) on January 4, 2012 were unconstitutional. These appointments raised eyebrows because: (1) they were made just one day after the expiration of Member Craig Becker's term. This left the five-seat Board with only two confirmed members - Mark Pearce and Brian Hayes. This meant the NLRB lacked a quorum to issue decisions; and (2) the circumstance that would allow a President to make “Recess Appointments” under Article II, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution did not exist, because the Congress was in Pro Forma Session, not in a formal recess.

The case centered on Noel Canning challenging a February 8, 2012 NLRB decision on the grounds that its quorum only existed with the presence of invalid recess appointments. The D.C. Court of Appeals unanimously agreed.

There are many potential ripple effects from this decision, including some expansive language clarifying the Constitution’s “recess appointment” clause, dramatically limiting the circumstances when a President was empowered to act. This case is definitely bound for the U.S. Supreme Court with the potential of an historic ruling on the separation of powers between the Executive and Legislative Branches. [For more background on this issue read my earlier columns - http://citizenoversight.blogspot.com/2011/03/congressional-adjournments-unintended.html  and http://www.constitutingamerica.org/blog/blog/category/guest-constitutional-scholar-essayists/scot-faulkner/  ]

Overshadowing the broader Constitutional issues is the immediate issue of the continued operation of the NLRB in light of the ruling. The Court’s decision only invalidated the NLRB’s decision and stated the grounds. The Court did not issue any injunction against further NLRB activity.

Here is where everyone flunks their homework assignment. Today’s talk shows had every side tying themselves up in knots over whether it is legal to stop the NLRB’s activities, and if so, how. Some said cutting the pay of the NLRB Commissioners was one way to do it, but they did not know if had ever been done. Others said cutting pay was unconstitutional.

If only all these over paid talking heads, or their underpaid research staff, spent ten minutes on Google or simply knew someone who remembers the George Dunlop – Jamie Whitten fight of 1987. In 1987, Rep. Jamie L. Whitten, (D-MS) was chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. George Dunlop was Assistant Secretary for Environment and Natural Resources at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Dunlop and Whitten had been antagonists since the days when Dunlop was Senator Jesse Helms' (R-NC) top agriculture staffer. Their battle came to a head in 1987 when Dunlop refused to attend one of Whitten’s hearings, opting to avoid another nasty and unproductive confrontation.

Whitten was not amused. The Chairman moved the FY 1988 USDA Appropriations bill through his subcommittee, the full Committee, and on to the House for consideration. It was soon discovered that FY1988 funding for Dunlop’s position had been omitted from the bill. Dunlop promptly met with Whitten, buried the hatchet, and funding for his position was added to the bill. Congress asserted its Constitutional power of the purse as a way of humbling a wayward Presidential appointee.

Thus, targeting positions through the Appropriations process is Constitutional. A little homework would have avoided all the “sturm und drang” on the talk shows. It also should serve as a guide for Republicans looking for ways to cut federal spending. There is nothing wrong with targeting specific programs, projects, positions, and offices to force the implementation of Inspector General and Government Accountability Office (GAO) recommendations. A much more rational way to deal with the debt instead of the meat axes unleashed through Sequestration.

Amazing where completing a homework assignment can lead.

Wasted Days and Wasted Nights

By Scot Faulkner & Jonathan Riehl

How did you spend the last 806 days?

If you were a Congressional Republican prior to your Williamsburg retreat, you were doing nothing. Nothing productive, at any rate. You spent this time ceding the political landscape to President Obama and the Democrats in Congress. Your are waiting for an Inaugural Address to respond to, while allowing tone-deaf and clueless pollsters and lobbyists to speak for the Party.

Since decisively winning the November 2, 2010 elections, Republicans in Congress, and their acolytes in the conservative media, have made sure to miss 806 days of opportunity to define themselves and communicate a compelling alternative platform. This is not a choice; it is a reflection of political reality: They have no platform. Because they have no coherent idea of who they are. The American people sense this. Increasingly, moderates and centrists are abandoning them because of it.

The recent Pew Survey shows Americans disapprove of Republican Congressional leadership by 66% while only 19% approved. That is a staggering 47 point negative. Gallup’s survey is equally bad with 25% approving and 67% disapproving for a 42 point negative gap.

These dreadful scores are only part of the problem. During the last 806 days President Obama and Congressional Democrats have framed the Fiscal Cliff/Debt Ceiling/Budget battle in ways highly favorable to their cause while painting Republicans into a microscopic corner. This is smart rhetorical strategy, to be sure.

Politics often comes down to defining the terms of the battle, something both parties have excelled at during different moments in history. The Democrats are the current masters of rhetoric. Democrats, even radicals, are now called “Progressives”. Government spending is now called “investment,” thanks to a spin factory gem from Bill Clinton. Spending cuts of any magnitude are dismissed as damaging to America’s economic recovery. There is also the unchallenged assertion that there have already been more than enough budget cuts, but no where near enough tax increases.

Our current Republicans tilt at windmills and straw men, assailing the “Main Stream Media” (which excludes, of course, the most popular cable network, Fox News) for their rout in the budget battle. They continue to embrace the parallel universe of Fox and conservative Talk Radio asserting that these “news” outlets are being drowned out by the “mainstream.” Never has Orwellian double-talk been more obvious -- or harmful to political discourse.

During the last 806 days, Republicans have been annoyingly vague about government waste and the need to cut spending. They trumpet their ideology, but ideology is not governance -- and Americans continue to see the President as more competent in that task. The problem is that the GOP never issued a meaningful indictment or offered a prosecution brief. Just saying there is waste does not make it so. Endlessly repeated talking points about “limited government” do not inspire, do not confer confidence, and do not offer hope to a still struggling nation.

While Republicans remain unfocused, the Democrats have created a multimedia echo chamber that has established memes relating to fairness and collective action. Republicans, on the other hand, offer nothing but confrontational bluster. Their weak, ineffective, and mostly nonexistent defense has left them marginalized and demonized. The entire body politic suffers as a result; Democracy only functions when robust factions confront each other in rational discourse. The authors here have differing political views on important matters, but are of one mind on this central point.

Republicans could have made a difference. Starting on November 3, 2010, they could have been building their case.   Every time a Republican was in front of a camera or microphone they could have issued compelling examples about non-performing government contractors getting billions in bonuses, about hundreds of billions more sitting unused in countless agency accounts, or cited any one of the thousands of reports documenting waste published by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the 73 Inspector General offices.  This would have put forward a viable vision of governance that differs from the status quo. This is complicated, of course, because the status quo is not just the last four years, but also the eight under Republicans who grew government and spent America into oblivion.

Perhaps this is what the psychologists call cognitive dissonance -- Republicans are now mostly unwilling to hold hearings on government spending or mismanagement, because many of them blindly supported Bush-era spending boondoggles both foreign and domestic. Bereft of principle, and caught in hypocrisy of their own making, Republicans have little to stand on. The GOP did not even hold hearings on Senator Tom Coburn’s annual Waste Report, a longtime staple of reasonable oversight. Only CSPAN’s BookTV gave Coburn a proper forum to discuss his exhaustive and highly credible research on government waste.

Reestablishing Republican relevance must include atoning for embracing wasteful spending during the Bush era. In one amazing example of “Bush party line”, Republicans on the House Oversight panel minimized $6 billion in hundred dollar bills vanishing from the Bagdad Airport while Democrats raised concerns about the money being stolen and possibly funding terrorism. Republicans lose credibility when they are more concerned about who is doing damaging things instead of the damaging thing itself. Waste is waste; corruption is corruption; no matter who is doing it. To say anything different is abandoning your moral core.

Republicans met in Williamsburg to develop a strategy for the coming budget battles, and unfortunately it looks like more showmanship instead of statesmanship. They should have spent this time finding their minds and souls.

...Pants on Fire

Elvis and reality have left the building.

The hyper-partisan rants over the fiscal cliff were just the warm-up act for the triple play looming on the horizon. The triple issues of reining-in the debt limit, resolving the sequester, and extending the FY2013 Continuing Resolution seem to require triple the hyperbole.

Obama and Congressional Democrats are filling the air waves with victorious declarations about already reducing the federal deficit by $2.4 trillion. There are many creative tunes being played for this Conga Line.

The first is the timetable. Those who trumpet the $2.4 trillion only whisper “over the next ten years”. The trillion dollar number sounds large until you compare it to total federal spending of $44 trillion over the next ten years. That is a “whopping” 5.4% reduction in total spending. This assumes that the current decisions somehow bind four future Congresses and the next President.

Let’s look at the spending “cuts”. Obama and his supporters cite the Budget Control Act of 2010, which reinstates some of the spending targets from the 1985 Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act. This is supposedly reducing various discretionary expenditures by $850 billion over the next ten years. Unfortunately, for the past 28 years, the spending targets of Gramm-Rudman-Hollings has been systematically ignored while the federal budget has tripled in size.

Obama supporters also assert that Congressional inaction and gridlock have resulted in Continuing Resolutions that leveled-off spending for a ten-year savings of $585 billion or $58.5 billion a year. This is creative bookkeeping at its best. Just one appropriation bill pushing for more than an inflationary increase in spending would erase these bogus budget savings.

Let’s take a moment to discuss inflation. Buried deep in the analytical tables of the Federal Budget is something called the “Current Services Analysis”. This is where zero-based budgets of the past went to die. “Current Services” is what budgeting should be, but never is. It is how much it would cost for the Federal Government to do exactly next year what it did the pervious year factoring in inflation escalators built into contracts and projects. This tracks to every person, project, program, office, vehicle, and building. The dirty little secret of Washington is that no one uses these numbers. The annual baseline offered by the Administration is well above “Current Services”. Both parties, while in the White House, play this game. Congress and interest groups then wail about budgets being cut when the Administration’s budget request is reduced even though these cuts never fully reduce the increase above “Current Services”. Thus spending ratchets higher no matter who is in charge.

This brings us to “Sequestration”. This $1.2 trillion over the next ten years poison pill of spending cuts was never designed to be real. Back in the summer of 2011, when raising the debt ceiling became a policy act instead of an administrative one, Congress and the Administration agreed to a “doomsday option” – the Sequester. The Sequester was designed to be so horrific that no one would ever want it to occur – thus forcing a real budget solution. Since everyone decided to avoid a real solution the Sequester looms large on the near horizon. Congress can always reverse itself and eliminate the Sequester with a “we were just kidding” floor vote. So trumpeting the Sequester as part of the $2.4 trillion over the next ten years reduction is also bending reality.

The other part of the victory dance is taking more money from Americans and giving it to the federal government. Believing that the federal government’s major problem is lack of our money is foundational to the Administration and Congressional Democrats. The recent tax increase generates $630 billion over the next ten years. In the past, any increase in federal receipts removed pressure to cut spending while increasing the urge to spend more.

The final assertion is that ripple effects of all these “savings” will reduce interest paid on the national debt $300 billion over the next ten years have as much to do with international money markets as they do on the total balance owed.

America braces for the next act in this most irresponsible fiscal fantasy.

FISCAL FOLLIES

Washington policy officials and pundits take note – you have all flunked Governing 101, Management 101, Civil Discourse 101, Budgeting 101, Accountability 101, and Reality 101. Republicans also failed Communications 101 & Politics 101. Democrats passed these courses with honors in creative fiction writing.

No one is telling the truth about anything relating to the Fiscal Cliff. Americans will begin suffering from Washington’s mass delusion and hysteria by mid January 2012. Wage earners will see a reduction in take home pay with their first pay checks. Some government contractors will get termination notices around the same time because of the consciously severe cuts under the Sequester.

The damage from going over the Fiscal Cliff will remain limited because of the possibility of retroactive fixes being dated back to January 1, 2013. However, this expectation unravels at the end of February if there is no budget deal. Even a superficial, “kick the can down the road again” deal would avoid this expectation cliff. This gives everyone two months to do something before the bottom really falls out.

How did America get in this mess?

Blame the Republicans – starting in 1995, the Republicans in Congress could have held wall-to-wall hearings exposing trillions of dollars in ongoing waste, fraud, and abuse. Mountains of Inspector General Reports, Government Accountability Office Reports, and watch dog organization reports would have been easy pickings for years. By exposing the mind-boggling array of how Americans’ money is squandered would have built a mandate for real change. Republicans never pursued this course. In fact, they remained tongue-tied on how to cut spending through the 2012 elections. When they did offer ideas, they went for ideological cuts, like Public Broadcasting.

Republicans also made every effort to box themselves into a stereotype of defending the rich and abandoning the poor. They never explained that every penny wasted hurts everyone. These pennies include nearly $1 trillion a year in outrageous tax loopholes for corporations, the wealthy, and even foreign gamblers.

Blame the Democrats – the Democrats have refused to focus on spending because the moment they acknowledge that spending can be cut they lose their argument that the federal government needs more of our money. They made budget cutting a partisan issue. This is truly sad for America. Way back in the 1970s, Senator Proxmire (D-WI) issued “Gold Fleece Awards” exposing government waste. Liberal journalists like Jack Anderson railed against waste where ever it was found. Even the National Enquirer had fun with “goofy grants”. Waste was waste and the public embraced aggressive oversight across the political spectrum. This all ended during the Administration of George HW Bush when Democrats realized extorting more taxes required silence on how the money was really being spent.

Blame the media – reporters and commentators love a crisis. They embrace false deadlines and refuse to discuss that these deadlines are based upon fiction, because their countdown clocks and their breathlessly chasing after every rumor attracts viewers and readers. There is no incentive for telling the truth - that everything could be avoided within seconds if everyone sobered up and grew-up.

America is confronted with a parade of “naked emperors” who trumpet that what they are doing is real, and that we are fools if we do not comprehend how hard it is to get off the treadmill of more debt, more taxes, and more spending. Who will be the first voice in the crowd to begin laughing at them and demanding honesty?

FUBAR

[Overly complex ways to do simple things - by Rube Goldberg]

In the summer of 2011, Republicans and Democrats finally realized that the structural flaws in America’s fiscal management had to be addressed sooner rather than later. They created a fictional “fiscal cliff” that would deliver horrendously real consequences if all sides of the issue did not rise to the challenge. Instead of ushering in serious bi-partisan analysis and action, it accelerated and amplified the partisanship, exposing the fundamental dysfunctions of both political parties and of the Legislative and Executive Branches.

Just hours before the debacle of “Plan B” in the House, ABC-Australia reported on the realities and fantasies of the fiscal cliff. What follows is the transcript of their report.  The audio file can be heard at http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-21/republicans-try-to-pass-plan-b-on-fiscal-cliff/4440368

EMILY BOURKE: To the United States now, where there's been furious last minute political wrangling over the so-called fiscal cliff and the mix of tax hikes and spending cuts.

As the clock ticks down towards the year-end deadline, Republicans have crafted a back-up plan in case a broader agreement can't be reached with the White House.

The Republican-dominated House of Representatives has passed a bill to cut domestic spending but after an abrupt recess, the Republicans decided to postpone a vote on tax breaks, having failed to get the numbers.

But it appears the Republican effort will be futile with Democrats in the Senate and the president vowing to block a Republican plan either way.

From Washington, Kim Landers reports.

KIM LANDERS: A few days ago a deal seemed possible.

President Barack Obama and House Republican speaker John Boehner continued to talk about how to avoid steep tax increases and spending cuts - the so-called fiscal cliff which is designed to reduce the federal deficit.

But now the two sides are further apart than ever before, openly trading political blows in the media all day.

JOHN BOEHNER: President Obama and Senate Democrats haven't done much of anything. Their plan B is just slow-walk us over the fiscal cliff and for weeks the White House said that if I moved on rates, that they would make substantial concessions on spending cuts and entitlement reforms. I did my part, they've done nothing.

KIM LANDERS: Jay Carney is the White House spokesman.

JAY CARNEY: But what we know about this exercise and we have seen this movie before is that when there was the opportunity for a compromise on something big and significant, the Republican leadership walked away and pursued something that was irrelevant to the rest of America.

KIM LANDERS: Late today, the Republican-dominated House of Representatives narrowly passed a bill to cut domestic spending.

But even before the votes were taken, the Democrat-dominated Senate was signalling that the measures would fail in the Upper House.

Dick Durbin is a Democratic senator from Illinois.

DICK DURBIN: Remember the closing scene in Thelma and Louise? Rather than face the reality of what lies ahead, they hit the gas. That's what we're hearing from speaker Boehner now, hit the gas and go over the cliff.

KIM LANDERS: Scot Faulkner is the former chief administrator of the US House of Representatives. He's highly doubtful that a deal can be struck before the end of the year.

SCOT FAULKNER: Both sides have dug themselves so deep into their trenches that you are not going to see a deal until after the first of the year and a new Congress comes in and the problem is that both sides really don't think the fiscal cliff is going to happen no matter how much they posture to the public and they both think the other side is going to give more ground and nobody is going to give more ground.

KIM LANDERS: Many government agencies are already preparing their employees for the impact of the looming budget cuts.

The US defence secretary Leon Panetta says uniformed military personnel will be exempt. But he's told civilian Pentagon employees that while no workers will face immediate unpaid leave after January the 1st, furloughs might ultimately be necessary.

Scot Faulkner explains why neither Republicans nor Democrats want to give ground.

SCOT FAULKNER: They're still thinking in terms of campaign mode, no-one is thinking in terms of governing.

KIM LANDERS: And can you suggest a reason why?

SCOT FAULKNER: They've not thought in terms of governing for over 12 years. You have, everybody is playing to their partisan audiences and in America you have very strong partisan newspapers, very strong partisan radio stations and cable television news stations and as long as their particular audience is cheering them on, no one is going to give ground and no one is going to shift from campaign mode into a governing mode.

KIM LANDERS: The impact of going over the so-called fiscal cliff has already been outlined.

According to the projections from the Congressional Budget Office, gross domestic product will drop by 0.5 per cent next year.

That contraction in the economy will cause unemployment to rise to 9.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013.

But the agency estimates that after next year, economic growth will pick up and the labour market will strengthen with unemployment shrinking to 5.5 per cent by 2018.

SCOT FAULKNER: What will happen is that the first time that thing hits, one of those indicators hit recession, the recession zone, you will then have a scramble for everyone to first blame everyone else and then say okay, what can we do about this and so I think it's going to take an economic shock to finally get the political system working, even if it is only superficially.

KIM LANDERS: Scot Faulkner believes there is still time to strike a deal before the end of the year but even if that happens, he thinks it'll be a bandaid solution.

SCOT FAULKNER: At this point if they try to do anything, it's going to be either kick the can down the road hoping something else will happen or it will be very superficial. I mean they'll announce it as the coming of the new age but it'll be very superficial and not solve any of the fundamental issues facing America.

KIM LANDERS: The president is due to head to Hawaii for his Christmas holiday soon. It's unclear if the stalemate over the fiscal cliff is going to play havoc with those plans.

This is Kim Landers in Washington for The World Today.