Tuesday, June 15, 2021

LESSONS NOT LEARNED

 

[Also published on Newsmax]

Trump’s supporters are stirring.  They are aghast at the Biden era, feeling it is based on years of lies, conspiracies, and “fake news”.

Trump’s detractors continue to stir.  They hope relentless investigations will lead to Trump in handcuffs and ultimately in jail. 

Both sides want “payback”.  The anti-Trumps want finality and an object lesson, that assures no outsider ever again gets close to draining the Swamp.  The pro-Trumpsters want to retake the Legislative Branch in 2022 and the Executive Branch in 2024. 

Trump’s “populist revolution” will only succeed if he and his supporters learn lessons from the last four years.

“Republicans hold office.  Democrats hold power.” mused Mark Steyn on a recent Fox News show.

Trump and his supporters must understand this in all its manifestations, should they ever hope to achieve their vision.

Trump failed at the very basic level of wielding power.  He ignored the maxims: “People equal policy” and “Personnel is policy”.  Adhering to these maxims allowed the Reagan revolution to eradicate the Soviet Union and its empire, while shifting America’s political center of gravity for the first time since 1932.  Adhering to these maxims allowed the Gingrich revolution to reinvent Congressional operations for the first time since 1789, while re-establishing a competitive Legislative Branch for the first time since 1932.

Reagan’s and Gingrich’s revolutions made removing their opponents their first order of business.

All Carter appointees were removed within the first weeks of Reagan taking office.  Their badges were confiscated, and their security clearances revoked.  A team went door-to-door throughout the White House and Executive Office buildings assuring every Carter person, every pro-Carter careerist, every pro-Carter detailee, and every pro-Carter contractor were marched out the door.  Careerists were reassigned, contracts were cancelled.  

At the same time teams of Reaganites took complete control of core operations within every department and agency: the Executive Secretariats and the offices of Legal Counsel, Personnel, Finance, and Procurement.  Legions of Reagan appointees instantaneously overwhelmed the Executive Branch, methodically reviewing every recent and pending action, ending and reversing those not in full accord with the Reagan agenda. This included personnel actions, training, contracts, grants, legal actions, regulations, publications, meetings, and anything else of substance.

In some agencies, such as the General Services Administration (GSA) the center of government corruption under Carter, every employee was assessed and a new agency culture, complete with new position descriptions, hiring & promotion criteria, administrative processes, and accountability systems were put in place.  Pro-Reagan whistle blowers, investigative media, and congressional oversight professionals identified those careerists who were trustworthy to build viable cores of competent loyalists deep in every nook and cranny of the Executive Branch. 

The Gingrich Revolution began the same way.  Within an hour of becoming Speaker, every top administrator and administrative assistant was fired and walked out the door. Their files were seized, their security clearances revoked.  New House rules and reform legislation eradicated forty years of “kleptocracy” that robbed public funds and furnishings from the Capitol.  A new management team completely reinvented Congressional operations propelling the 18th century work culture and processes into the 21st.

In both cases, Reagan, Gingrich, and their operational teams, had a “sense of urgency” that drove them to clear the landscape of the old guard and ways.  They had a clear vision and detailed plans. They never blinked.  They never stood still.  They never leaked.  They never tolerated disloyalty.

Unfortunately, Trump and his team did the opposite.  They were told, in detail, by Reagan and Gingrich alums, what needed to be done.  They heard but never listened or learned.

The result was Trump never having control over his Administration.  Obama holdovers ran the White House correspondence unit for the first two years.  Obama, Clinton, and Deep State operatives remained in control of everything.  Those who were terminated never had their ID badges or security clearances removed.

Trump was too trusting of Swamp dwellers.  His Transition was run by Bush and Romney operatives.  His White House was filled with RINOs.  Confidential information, even from small meetings, was leaked to the media within minutes.

 Trump’s holding back on making appointments was “penny wise but pound foolish”.  He never had overwhelming forces in any department or agency.  He never had control of core operations.  That is why his initiatives withered after he signed Executive Orders.  There was no one there to implement them. On the other hand, political holdovers and anti-Trump bureaucrats ran rampant.  They derailed pro-Trump efforts while allowing ongoing Obama/Clinton policies, personnel actions, training, contracts, grants, legal actions, regulations, publications, and meetings to continue unabated.  

Despite this, Trump hobbled regulations, made foreign policy strides, and had legislative victories. Unfortunately, they are all being reversed in the Biden era.

Imagine what Trump could have done had he learned the lessons of Reagan and Gingrich?

 

 


Thursday, June 10, 2021

THE THIN BLUE LINE

 

[Also published on Newsmax]

“Mine has a gun!”

“Mine does too!”

My wife, Vicki, and I were spread-eagled against the sides of our car.  An older white man was holding his Glock on her, a younger Black man was holding his Glock on me.

Moments earlier, I was looking at the posted menu outside a restaurant we visited years before.  Vicki had dropped me at their front door while she drove to the parking area behind the restaurant.  Then things began to happen.

Vicki roared out of the alley, slammed on the breaks, and screamed, “get in!”

I jumped in and we quickly drove off.

“Something bad is happening back there”, gasped Vicki, “guys were on the ground.  Others had guns.”

Two blocks later, an unmarked police car was speeding up from behind us with lights flashing.  We saw a strip mall on our right and pulled in.

The two men jumped out of their car and, with guns drawn, stood on each side of our car and shouted for us to get out, turn around, and put our hands on the roof.

We complied.

After checking our IDs they holstered their weapons and apologized. 

The older man was FBI, and the younger a policeman.  They explained they were part of a drug taskforce that was arresting people from inside the restaurant, which they claimed was a drug trafficking hub.  Our car matched the description of one of the drug dealer vehicles.

They apologized again and wished us a pleasant evening. We cautiously continued home, waiting for our adrenaline levels to return to normal.

We had become a statistic – “an unjust police stop”.

Police interactions have become the lightning rod for the Left’s assault on law & order. It is now commonplace for the media, activists, and politicians to showcase incidents of police shootings. Breaking news occurs when victims are unarmed criminals, or the rare instances of unarmed non-criminals, being killed, wounded, or just “harassed”.

Even though the number of police shootings are down, and police being shot are up, interactions that end badly are being promoted as evidence of America being a fundamentally racist unjust society.

Problematic Police interactions are positioned to justify teaching Critical Race Theory, 1619, White Privilege, Systematic Racism, Institutional Racism, Conscious Inclusion, and Unconscious Bias in classrooms and work settings.  It has ushered in changing terms from “Equality” to “Equity”.  It is the driving force behind “defunding the police” and “reimagining law enforcement”.

Police pull over about 20 million drivers across the United States each year, according to Stanford University.  Various studies try to prove racial bias, and profiling, lead to “unjust police stops” and escalation to violence against “people of color”.

Newsweek recently reported there is “significant data showing” that the U.S. is plagued by “systemic racism.” Their evidence is the “NAACP found that from 2017 to 2020, Black men were five times more likely than white people to be stopped by law enforcement without a valid reason.”

However, the Left’s facts, do not match the real facts.


A 2016 study in the Journal of Social Issues shows:

  • “Latina/os comprised 42.2% of the sample and 41.9% of Latina/os reported being stopped.”
  • “Black or African Americans comprised 24.7% of the sample [and] 25.8% reported being stopped.”
  • “Whites comprised 20.2% of the sample and 22.6% were stopped.” 

The Manhattan Institute recently reported:

“In 2018 there were 7,407 black homicide victims. Assuming a comparable number of victims last year, those nine unarmed black victims of police shootings represent 0.1% of all African-Americans killed in 2019. By contrast, a police officer is 18½ times more likely to be killed by a black male than an unarmed black male is to be killed by a police officer.”

Justice Quarterly reported on a New Jersey study finding that while black drivers were more likely to be pulled over than white drivers, “police stop rates matched very closely the rates at which drivers” of different races “exceeded the speed limit by 15 mph.”

Dueling studies and statistics miss the real factor. 

The major factor in preventing “unjust police stops” from escalating is what Vicki and I did during ours – we complied.

Imagine if we had sped up instead of pulling over.  Imagine if we had refused to get out of our car.  Imagine if we had assaulted the plain clothes officers.  We would have become a very different statistic, no matter our race or gender.

There is a legitimate role for law enforcement in any society.  It is a risky, thankless, and stressful task. 

We should honor those who wake-up every day to assure our peace and security.


Thursday, March 18, 2021

America Opposes Britain's Power Grab - Taxation

 

[Part of the 90 Day Study: Our Lives, Our Fortunes & Our Sacred Honor – 

Exploring the Declaration of Independence]

90-Day Study Essay Schedule 2021 – Constituting America

DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE: Grievance Number 10.   “He has erected a multitude of New Offices and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance”.

Grievance Ten in the Declaration of Independence focuses on the most visible aspect of “taxation without representation”, which was foundational to the American Revolution.

England was deep in debt after prevailing in the first worldwide war of the modern era.  The Seven Years War (1756-1763) engaged all European countries, big and small, in a struggle for territorial and political dominance of the European Continent.  It rapidly spread to battling over control of colonies and trade routes throughout Africa, Asia, the Americas, and the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans. 

What was known as the “French and Indian War” in North America was just a small part of this larger world war.

After the British victory, British Prime Minister, Lord Grenville (1763-1765), desperately sought ways to pay off the crippling war debt.  Grenville choose to ignore the fact that American colonists paid, fought, and died to defeat France in North America.  Instead, he promoted the concept that the beneficiaries of the war (American colonists) should pay for it. He also asserted that American colonists should pay for retaining twenty battalions of British soldiers that remained to pacify the people conquered in the former French territories.

Grenville’s first step was to enforce existing customs duties.  Many British Customs officials managed collections through intermediaries while remaining in England.  Grenville forced them to relocate to America as part of his general crack down on smuggling, lax enforcement, and spotty revenue collection. Expanded numbers of Customs Officers became more aggressive in using search warrants, called "writs of assistance", to track down smuggled goods. Warehouses were seized and ships were captured to bolster Royal revenue collection.  Royal Customs officials became a permanent and pervasive presence in Colonial seaports along the Atlantic coast.

Benjamin Franklin cautioned that “what England gained from taxes would be lost in trade”.   A post-War economic recession proved him prophetic.

The shortfall in Customs revenue led to the Stamp Act of 1765, the first internal tax levied directly on American colonists by the British Parliament. Prior to the Stamp Act taxes were only levied by local government through their elected officials.  Now a government, 3,500 miles away, was asserting control, without the knowledge, approval, or oversight of the colonists.

The Stamp Act imposed a tax on all paper documents in the colonies.  This included legal documents, playing cards, newspapers, and land titles. Stamps had to be purchased with British sterling, rather than local paper currency, causing additional economic hardship. Proof of payment required affixing a Royal Stamp on documents, thus the name.

The February 1765 Parliament debate on the Stamp Tax reveals the growing chasm between King George III and his proponents versus the American Colonists:

Prime Minister Grenville:

"and now will these Americans, children planted by our care, nourished up by our indulgence until they are grown to a degree of strength and opulence, and protected by our arms, will they grudge to contribute their mite to relieve us from heavy weight of the burden which we lie under?"

 

Colonel Isaac Barré [Member of Parliament and friend of Benjamin Franklin] responded:

“They planted by your care? No! Your oppression planted ‘em in America. They fled from your tyranny to a then uncultivated and unhospitable country where they exposed themselves to almost all the hardships to which human nature is liable…

 

“They nourished by your indulgence? They grew by your neglect of ‘em. As soon as you began to care about ‘em, that care was exercised in sending persons to rule over 'em, in one department and another, who were perhaps the deputies of deputies to some member of this house, sent to spy out their liberty, to misrepresent their actions and to prey upon 'em; men whose behavior on many occasions has caused the blood of those sons of liberty to recoil within them....

 

“They protected by your arms? They have nobly taken up arms in your defense, have exerted a valor amidst their constant and laborious industry for the defense of a country whose frontier while drenched in blood, its interior parts have yielded all its little savings to your emolument .... The people I believe are as truly loyal as any subjects the King has, but a people jealous of their liberties, and who will vindicate them if ever they should be violated."

 

BarrĂ©’s reference to the “sons of liberty” became the moniker for the Boston Patriots for years to come.

 

Parliament passed the Stamp Act on March 22, 1765.  Hundreds of Royal commissioned “Stamp Agents” arrived in major towns across the American colonies.  They were met with riots and attacks.  In October 1765, representatives from nine of the colonies met at the City Hall in New York City to coordinate opposition, a forerunner to the Continental Congresses. In the face of mounting opposition, and concerns for the safety of Royal Tax officials, the Parliament repealed the Stamp Act on February 22, 1766.

 

While seeming to address colonial concerns, Parliament linked repealing the Stamp Act to passage of the Declaratory Act.  This Act affirmed Parliament’s authority to pass any colonial legislation it saw fit, without input, notice, or representation. The Declaratory Act galvanized colonial concerns about “taxation without representation”, first raised with the Stamp Act.

 

Charles Townshend (August 1766-September 1767) became Prime Minister and developed additional imperatives for taxing the Colonies.  It was no longer just about paying war debt, it was about consolidating Imperial power. 

 

Raising taxes, and trade-based duties and fees, would provide enough money for the British Crown to “reimagine” colonial administration by directly paying Colonial Governors, Judges, and other senior officials.  American-based officials would now owe their livelihood directly to King George III instead of the colonists and colonial assemblies.  By “liberating” royal officials from their financial dependence on American legislatures, Townshend hoped to eliminate the most tangible obstacle preventing regular enforcement of parliamentary laws and royal directives.

 

Higher revenue from the American colonies were also to provide enough funds for Townsend to reduce the British Land Tax, consolidating his Party’s support in future elections.

The “Townshend Acts” created new taxes on numerous consumer goods.  The Acts authorized and funded the hiring of the much referenced, “multitude of New Offices and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance.”  Legions of Royal tax collectors and Customs Officers arrived from England to establish new or expanded operations in every major colonial trading center. 

Townshend died before his initiatives swept through the colonies.  Widespread opposition and protests led to the repeal most taxes in April 1770.  The controversial tax on tea remained.

The Tea Tax, and the “swarms of Officers”, remained daily reminders of oppression by unaccountable Royal officials.  Arthur Lee, serving as an observer for Massachusetts before the British Parliament, mused whether any Member of Parliament actually, "know us, or we him? No! Is he bound in duty and interest to preserve our liberty and property? No! Is he acquainted with our circumstances, situation, wants, etc.? No! What then are we to expect from him? Nothing but taxes without end!"

The ever expanding and intrusive presence of tax collectors and customs officers merited several mentions in the “Petition to the King” as part of the documents issued by the First Continental Congress in 1774, and became Grievance Ten in the Declaration of Independence in 1776.


Monday, March 15, 2021

America Opposes Britain’s Power Grab – Immigration

 

[Part of the 90 Day Study: Our Lives, Our Fortunes & Our Sacred Honor – 

Exploring the Declaration of Independence]

90-Day Study Essay Schedule 2021 – Constituting America

DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE: Grievance Number 7.  "He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands."

In December 1773, King George III (reigned 1760-1820) suspended the “Plantation” or “Immigration” Act of 1740.  His intent was to strike at the heart of the economic engine fueling economic independence among the American colonies.  His other goal was to extinguish momentum for independent thought and religious expression.  These actions formed the basis for Grievance Seven in the Declaration of Independence.

George II (reigned 1727-1760) was the last foreign-born King of England.  He supported expansive and permissive immigration to the American Colonies.  In his world view, expanding population among the colonies generated demand for British goods.  Skilled immigrants would increase the productivity and profitability of colonial agriculture, bringing healthy returns among Royal Charter holders and their investors.

Just as important, the attraction of America as a land of opportunity and tolerance served as a “safety valve” for removing “free thinking” or “noncomformist” Protestants, and restive Scots and Irish, from the “home country” through legally approved immigration.  Church of England supporters and Royalists were more than happy to be rid of them after nearly 200 years of strife.

England also benefited from helping oppressed minorities, such as the Huguenots (French Protestants), leave Europe.  It allowed England to gain the “moral high ground” in the geopolitical power struggles of the time. Bringing Scandinavian and German peoples to America forged important alliances while enriching the economic and cultural mix of the Colonies.

On June 1, 1740, the “Plantation” or “Immigration” Act of 1740 went into effect to streamline immigration and naturalization.  It allowed any Protestant alien residing in any of their American colonies for seven years, without being absent from that colony for more than two months, to be deemed "his Majesty’s natural-born subjects of this Kingdom."  Over the course of several years, individual Colonies began to directly administer immigration and citizenship.  Many colonies, led by Pennsylvania, expanded coverage to include Catholics and Jews.

Benjamin Franklin was an eloquent supporter of immigration:

Strangers are welcome because there is room enough for them all, and therefore the old Inhabitants are not jealous of them; the Laws protect them sufficiently so that they have no need of the Patronage of great Men; and everyone will enjoy securely the Profits of his Industry…

"These new settlers to America create a growing demand for our merchandise, to the greater employment of our manufacturers...

 Multitudes of poor People from England, Ireland, Scotland and Germany, have by this means in a few Years become wealthy Farmers.  They create a continual demand for more Artisans of all the necessary and useful kinds, to supply those cultivators of the earth with houses, and with furniture & utensils of the grosser sorts which cannot so well be brought from Europe. Tolerably good Workmen in any of those mechanic arts, are sure to find employ, and to be well paid for their work, there being no restraints preventing strangers from exercising any art they understand, nor any permission necessary.”

 These free-wheeling immigration and citizenship policies came to an abrupt end when George III became King.

 The King’s Advisors raised concerns that non-English immigrants had little connection or loyalty to the “Mother Country” or its ruler.  In this world view, the expanding and diversifying colonial population was creating an independent challenge to the economic and political power of England.

 King George sent secret agents to America to assess the condition and “state-of-mind” of the colonists. “A large influx of liberty-loving German emigrants was observed, and the King was advised to discourage these immigrations”.

 Based upon these reports and recommendations, George III began to delay and obstruct new migration from England and other parts of Europe. In his Royal Proclamation of 1763, he prevented settlement west of the Appalachians, hoping to limit further agricultural growth. This angered those wanting to settle in the west, and ignited opposition from those with significant investments in western real estate.

 King George, and his Prime Minister, Lord North, took additional actions to end immigration, naturalization, and expansion of the Colonial economy.  In December 1773, they forbid Colonial naturalization of aliens, under any conditions.  A ban on royal land grants was finalized in February 1774.

 England’s far reaching assault on colonial naturalization laws and suspending the “Plantation Act” was considered intolerable, and therefore, was included in the grievances listed in the Declaration of Independence

Fourteen years later, the “Plantation Act of 1740" would be the model for the “Naturalization Act of 1790”, the first immigration policy of the new nation.

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

America Opposes Britain’s Power Grab – Right to Assembly

 

[Part of the 90 Day Study: Our Lives, Our Fortunes & Our Sacred Honor – 

Exploring the Declaration of Independence]

90-Day Study Essay Schedule 2021 – Constituting America

Declaration of Independence: Grievance Number 4. “He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.”

Public meetings and public records have been fundamental to representative government since its inception.  They are the basis for resolving differences, forging agreements, and holding public officials accountable.  They are integral to a free society.

It is not surprising that the British Crown’s assault on these fundamentals is among the top Grievances listed in the Declaration of Independence.

The escalating protests over onerous and draconian British Colonial policies and taxes crested with the “Boston Tea Party” on December 16, 1773.  Sons of Liberty activists dumped over a million dollars (in 21st Century value) of tea into Boston Harbor.

Lord North, the British Prime Minister (1770-1790), retaliated with harsh measures to suppress dissent and disrupt the culture of self-government, which he viewed as the root cause of the chaos. 

On May 2, 1774, North declared Massachusetts was "in a distempered state of disturbance and opposition to the laws of the mother country."

On May 20, 1774, Parliament passed the Massachusetts Government Act, which nullified the Massachusetts Charter of 1691. Under the Act, Royal Governor Thomas Gage dissolved the Massachusetts provincial assembly.  He then required them to meet in Salem, citing Boston as “unsafe”.  

The move to Salem had the intended effect of forcing Massachusetts’ legislators to travel and find food and lodging in a small town of 1,600 instead of among the 16,000 population of Boston.  The infrastructure for supporting legislative operations were nonexistent (stenographers, printers, legal offices, media, and messengers).  

Worse, there was no provision for moving any of the colony’s official records to Salem.  Any research or reference entailed a day’s travel each way from Salem to Boston and back again.  It achieved the British goal of “fatiguing them [legislators] into compliance with his measures”.

Similar actions were taken against the elected assemblies in Virginia and North Carolina.   North Carolina’s legislature was forced from their colonial capital of Brunswick to meet in New Bern.  In Virginia, Royal Governor, Lord Dunmore, dissolved the House of Burgesses and refused to call them back into session.  In defiance of the Governor, the colonial representatives reconvened at the Raleigh Tavern in Williamsburg.  Patrick Henry’s famous “Give me liberty, or give me death!” speech was presented during another banned session held at St. John’s Episcopal Church in Richmond (March 23, 1775).

The dislocation and dissolution of these Colonial Legislatures led to the same disruption and “discomfort” experienced by Massachusetts’ elected representatives. The goal of punishing opposition and suppressing dissent was achieved by forcing elected officials into “places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records”.  It certainly interfered with the colony's public business and prevented officials from "access to information necessary to conduct it". Eventually, all Colonial Governors dissolved their legislatures.  

The British Parliament also moved to eradicate local town meetings because, “a great abuse has been made of the power of calling them, and the inhabitants have, contrary to the design of their institution, been used to treat upon matters of the most general concerns, and to pass dangerous and unwarrantable resolves.”  Ongoing local meetings were replaced by annual meetings only called with the Colonial Governor’s permission, or not at all.

A series of five punitive acts were passed by Parliament intended to restrict public discourse and punish opponents.  It was England’s hope the “Intolerable Acts” would intimidate rebellious Colonists into submission. The “Acts” ignited a firestorm of outrage throughout Colonial America.  More importantly, it generated a unity of purpose and inspired a willingness for collective action among leaders in the previously fragmented American colonies.

The First Continental Congress met in the Carpenters Hall in Philadelphia from September 5-October 26, 1774. All colonies, except Georgia, were represented.  They issued the “Declaration of Rights and Grievances” which established a philosophy of government, and list of contentious issues, that would be echoed in the Declaration of Independence less than two years later.

The delegates created the “Continental Association”, which invoked non-importation, non-consumption of British goods, and non-exportation of American goods to England until the “Intolerable Acts” were rescinded.

King George and Lord North responded with a major show of force in Boston.  As British troops became increasingly visible on the city’s streets, Governor Gage created a network of informants to identify and arrest dissidents. 

Alerted to weapons being stockpiled in Lexington, Gage launched the fateful sortie that led to the “shot heard around the world”.

Saturday, October 24, 2020

THE GASLIGHT ELECTION

 


[Published on Newsmax]

2020 is the single most important election since 1860.

This is not hyperbole.  The future of America’s representative democracy is at stake.

The Left plans to change fundamental policies that will cripple earnings and economic vitality.  More ominous, the Left is planning to change the rules that have governed America since 1789.  Their sole purpose is to achieve permanent power.

More frightening is that these threats are being successfully hidden from the electorate.

America’s news media took a sharp left turn in the 1960s.  During the 21st Century, what is considered the “Mainstream Media” (MSM) dropped all pretense of being professional journalism.  They are overtly the Left’s propaganda arm.  “News anchors” and talk show moderators are no longer selected from working reporters, but from career political operatives.  The result is an echo chamber of anti-Americanism, and now anti-Trump.

This Leftist echo chamber now dominates over 95 percent of television, radio, print, and digital “news”. Except for a handful of conservative radio personalities, Fox Cable news shows, and blogs, the Left’s echo chamber shapes an alternate reality that may propel the Democrats into the White House and a Senate Majority.

The classic 1944 movie “Gaslight” is about a diabolical villain who creates an alternative reality to drive his victim insane to reap riches.  The term “Gaslighting” is based on this process of creating a fraudulent reality so the victim makes wrong decisions to their detriment.

That is what 2020 is about.  It is the Gaslight Election.

Since the Summer of 2016, the Left’s echo chamber has created a narrative, fueled by the bogus Steele Dossier, that Russian leaders are puppeteers controlling Trump and his inner circle.  Wild assertions went unchallenged.  A fake whistle blower, coached by Congressional Democrats and shaped by secretly backdated regulations, launched a reckless Impeachment. 

While the entire scheme of lashing Trump to Russia, and then Ukraine, was exposed as a fraud, the Left’s echo chamber barely reports it.  In fact, most of the echo chamber reprises Russia, unchallenged, whenever it can.  Tragically, Judicial Watch has had to sue Trump agencies to force the release of exculpatory information.  Career bureaucrats have successfully delayed these facts from entering the public domain.

At the same time, former Vice President Biden is on video bragging about doing exactly what was the basis of Trump’s Impeachment to laughter and applause by the Washington, DC elite.  Efforts to hold Biden accountable have been thwarted by FBI and intelligence officials for years.  The Lefts’ echo chamber remains silent.  It is just as important to not report something.

The Lefts’ echo chamber also set the ultimate trap for Trump’s re-election.  COVID-19 remains Trump’s Achilles Heel because scary and highly inaccurate models generated by the Imperial College on March 16, 2020 forced America’s economic suicide.  The Left’s echo chamber demanded that Trump shut down his booming economy to prevent millions of deaths.  The model turned out to be fundamentally flawed.  Now the Left’s echo chamber blames Trump for this year’s economic downturn. Leftist Governors use their independence under Federalism to enforce draconian lockdown measures not based on current science.  This slows the economic recovery through election day.

Biden, Harris, and their media allies, wear masks every time they are on camera.  They wear masks when they are outdoors and over thirty feet from others.  No science or health organization recommends this.  It serves as a symbol for COVID-19 remaining a dire threat and Trump is to blame.  The Lefts’ echo chamber makes no effort to question this shameless propaganda ploy.  Instead it promotes it.

The Left creates visual equivalency by providing only tight shots of Biden and Harris at their podiums, ignoring the fact that less than ten people are in the audience.  Trump’s 20,000+ rallies are either not covered at all or show only tight podium shots.  Biden’s countless lies about his attending Black churches and colleges, his groundless assertions, and his fiction about awarding medals, remain unchallenged.  His radical agenda for the Green New Deal, tax increases, and aggressive gun control goes unreported.  Alternatively, debunked accusations, like Trump hating the armed forces, dominate news cycles.

The Left over-samples registered Democrats, sometimes over 50% to only 38% or less for Republicans, to generate polls showing Biden trouncing Trump.

The Left’s Gaslight Election may succeed because over 50 million have early voted, just as facts about the Biden family’s foreign influence peddling is slowly seeping out.  Congressional Republicans’ glacial investigative pace enables the Left’s reality.

 A Democrat sweep in November will be tragic for everyone except the liberal elite. Trump’s tax cuts will be erased, and new taxes added.  Four years of regulatory relief will evaporate.  All of Trump’s government reform Executive Orders will be voided within hours of the Inauguration.  Gun control will rapidly expand. The 1619 anti-American indoctrination curriculum will be forced into every classroom. Illegal aliens will be granted wholesale amnesty and added to the voter rolls.  American energy independence will vanish, and Americans will suffer from the absurd policies that have made California the land of rolling blackouts.  Hollywood and Sports celebrities will roar back into prominence, virtue signaling Americans about race relations and carbon footprints.  

Worse, all investigations of Biden, Obama, Clinton, and the Deep State will end within hours of a Biden/Democrat victory, extinguishing any hope that truth will prevail.

Friday, September 25, 2020

ELECTORAL COLLEGE: Lots of Guessing!

 

[Guest Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh Sr.] 

I often wonder how some of these psephologists draw their conclusions. I’m going to present one table with three different predictions about the electoral college outcome for the 2020 election. It’s why in a previous blog article I posited that many of these polls are derived from either outdated models or wishful thinking.

A good starting point might be how wrong these conclusions are. It is obvious from the 2016 election that most pundits were wrong: they mostly predicted Clinton to win over Trump. One projection I looked at was made September 2, 2016 (Kiplinger): Clinton wins with 290 electors to trumps 191 with 56 being toss-ups – approximately 2 months before the election! How about an even closer one on November 6, 2016 (politicsplus): Clinton wins with 300 to 236 – two days before the election!

Well, this year is not much better in terms of spread. The EC NUM is the number of electors for each state.  REP is Republican; DEM is Democrat. LEAN to REP means leans Republican; LEAN to the DEM means leans Democrat. A complete explanation of the tables follows the predictions presented below:

                                                                     BOVADA      BETONLIN                     REAL CLEAR POL.

                                     EC       2016 Elect   2020 Elect   2020 Elect    *********2020 Elect*********

STATE                       NUM   REP    DEM  REP  DEM     REP   DEM   TOT  REP LEAN  TOT  DEM   LEAN

Florida

29

29

29

29

0

0

 

Maine

4

1

3

1

3

4

0

3

1

2

 

Michigan

16

16

 

16

16

0

0

 

Pennsylvania

20

20

 

20

20

0

0

 

Wisconsin

10

10

 

10

 

10

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL ALL

538

306

232

249

289

219

319

125

92

33

222

169

53

 

 

REAL CLEAR UNDECIDED

 

 

Arizona

11

11

 

11

11

0

0

 

Florida

29

29

29

29

0

0

 

Georgia

16

16

16

16

0

0

 

Iowa

6

6

6

6

0

0

 

Maine

1

1

3

1

3

4

0

3

1

2

 

Michigan

16

16

 

16

16

0

0

 

Nebraska

1

4

5

5

4

4

0

 

Nevada

6

6

6

6

0

0

 

New Hampshire

4

4

4

4

0

0

 

North Carolina

15

15

15

15

0

0

 

Ohio

18

18

18

18

0

0

 

Pennsylvania

20

20

 

20

20

0

0

 

Texas

38

38

38

38

0

0

 

Wisconsin

10

10

 

10

 

10

0

0

 

 

 

 

TOTAL     191


 

 

 

Web Sites:

www.bovada.lv/sports/politics

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/politics/electoral-college

https://www1.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html


A couple of notes about the table. The row labeled TOTAL ALL is the total number of electors for each column. The other states have not been presented in this table because the other states agreed with each other in the polls and obfuscated the discussion. Two of the sources present the electors as going to either the Republicans or the Democrats. Real Clear Politics presents those two options as well as Undecided. The states in BOLD highlight an elector difference from the 2016 election. The one thing that should be evident is that there are three different outcomes presented (there are, of course, many other projections in other sites). In my opinion the BOVADA results are the most probable. This will be discussed below in terms of possible modifications. The BETONLINE outcome is the absolute worst for Trump – and I personally believe it is a Democrat fantasy.

The third outcome, REALPOLITICS, also fascinates me because of the number of undecided outcomes. I find it very interesting that the polls are able to predict Biden to win when there are 191 electors undecided at this point. I can only figure that there is another model that is tracking popular vote. I believe Trump will not win the popular vote; but as will be shown below, I do believe he will win the electoral college again! What does this mean for the 2020 election? My logic follows.

Well first off, these sources concede that there are certain states that are pretty sure are going to basically follow the results of the 2016 election. That being the case, it highlights the states that are going to probably decide the election outcome. One glaring difference is Florida: Trump absolutely needs this state to win – and I believe that he will. It is contested – two of the sources are at odds about this win – I’m going to give FL to Trump making the electoral count Biden 249 to 232 (as presented). This is primarily because I believe the retirees in that state will be concerned about their retirement portfolio under Biden and the fact that Trump seems to be picking up more of the Cuban vote than he had in the 2016 election.

Now for another discussion. Pennsylvania is a state that I believe is going to go to the Republicans, not the Democrats. If a person came to you and said: I’m going to eliminate your job, destroy the industry that you work in (a.k.a. as your career), raise your taxes, and try to foist all aspects of a socialist agenda on you, honestly – would you vote for this person? The Reasonable Man theory and the Prudent Man theory would suggest a NO vote. I’m going to go with this and common sense and say the majority of people will vote for Trump. That makes the vote Biden 229 to 252.

The next state, Michigan, Trump won 2016, and I project he will win the state in 2020 also. There is tremendous anger with Gov. Whitmer and the shutdown, gun ownership and the Second Amendment, taxes – just a whole bunch of things that I don’t think that population is going to want – which is what they will get under Biden. Also, there have been favorable trade deals for farmers. That makes it Biden 213 to Trump 268. The other two votes can be harvested from many other states either because they were undecided, or switch their voting preference from 2016.


One final comment is about who is projected to win Ohio. Two of the polls, BOVADA and BETONLINE, have conceded Ohio to Trump. What does this mean? “Since 1896, Ohio has had only two misses in the general election (Thomas E. Dewey in 1944 and Richard Nixon in 1960) and has the longest perfect streak of any state, voting for the winning presidential candidate in each election since 1964, and in 33 of the 37 held since the Civil War. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, and since the advent of the modern two-party system, only two Democrats have ever won the presidency without winning Ohio (in 1884/1892 and 1960).” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Ohio

 

Trump is my projected winner!

Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.