ART OF THE DEAL – KOREAN STYLE

The Ryugyong Hotel, the tallest building in North Korea

(unfinished and unoccupied since 1987)

Published on Newsmax. #TRUMPING #ARTOFTHEDEAL

The Trump-Kim meeting could end-up being nothing or be the beginning of everything.

President Trump surprised the world by agreeing to meet with North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Un.

Trump realizes that his three predecessors tried and failed to change the trajectory towards a nuclear North Korea. He also realizes that Iran and Islamic terrorists will be the primary beneficiaries of a nuclear North Korea.

Destabilization of the Korean Peninsula, the Pacific Rim, the Middle East, and potentially the rest of the world is totally unacceptable. Something new and different had to be tried, short of an apocalyptic war. Trump’s “saber rattling” is part of his bare knuckled approach to business - intimidate then negotiate.

Trump could suggest Kim Jong Un be inspired by Chinese Premier Deng Xiaoping.

Modern China’s economic revolution happened because Deng launched “Gaige Kaitang” (Reforms and Openness). He broke away from the stagnating allegiance to Mao’s teachings in order to create his own form of market capitalism.

Deng’s first step, in August 1980, was establishing Special Economic Zones (SEZs) that allowed western market and management methods to enter China. The zones ignited the economic engines, and foreign partnering, that propel China’s economy to this day.

Trump, along with China and South Korea, could offer to facilitate co-prosperity in exchange for Kim totally dismantling research and development of nuclear weapons and missiles.

In fits and starts, North Korea has reached out for foreign investment and knowledge over the years. They have established their own mini-version of SEZs. The challenge is to create enough oversight and boldness to stimulate real economic reform and openness. The goal is creating China style reforms, instead of Lenin's New Economic Policy in the USSR during the 1920s, which was a cynical attempt to exploit Western naivete and steal resources.

South Korean companies could enter North Korea and become major employers of North Koreans. These companies could also begin the long process of improving North Korea's infrastructure. Viable roads, rails and bridges are needed to support the supply chains to support successful SEZ factories.

South Koreans are realistic about co-prosperity. The Kaeson Industrial Region SEZ failed in 2013 because the North Korean government expected South Korean companies to act like parastatals and become another cog in Communism. The new North Korean SEZs must be based upon the lessons learned from Kaeson.

Trump could embrace and offer to foster expansion of the Choson Exchanges. North Korea is already sending some of their "best and brightest", on “Choson Fellowships”, to China, Indonesia and other Asian countries to learn about private sector management. North Korea needs western companies in its SEZs so Choson graduates can apply their new knowledge.

The Soviets failed when they tried to append capitalist principles to dysfunctional state-run industries and unrealistic five-year plans. North Korea needs to understand the truism that state-run companies will fail no matter how many outside ideas are introduced. Official statist principles absorb and destroy free market ideas like white cells attacking infection. Only through independent and viable SEZs will North Koreans realize the benefits of these early forays into the world beyond their borders.

President Trump could suggest that North Korea be open to South Korean partnerships to fully realize the potential of its vast natural wealth. North Korea has reserves of more than 200 mineral types distributed over 80% of its territory. Developing these natural resources could dramatically increase the wealth of North Korea. South Korea and China would benefit from access to these minerals. Revenue from mineral exports could fund improvements in the North's agriculture that would bring real nutrition to its people.

The bottom line is that the regional powers - China and South Korea - have a vested interest in bringing North Korea into the family of nations. Real economic development will improve the health and well-being of the North Korean people. Reuniting families and opening economic exchange would be the first steps toward reuniting an ancient culture, benefiting the region and the world. Openness and interaction offer North Koreans a better future than living in an isolated pariah state.

President Trump knows that the “art of the deal” is making sure all parties have a solid tangible interest in making the deal a lasting reality, and that any agreement must adhere to Ronald Reagan’s maxim: “trust but verify”.

[Scot Faulkner advises corporations and governments on how to save billions of dollars by achieving dramatic and sustainable cost reductions while improving operational and service excellence. He served as the Chief Administrative Officer of the U.S. House of Representatives. He also served on the White House Staff, and as an Executive Branch Appointee.]

INDIA & JAPAN STANDING TOGETHER

Dr. Sunil Chacko - Guest Columnist


Also published at http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/10801-crowded-agenda-awaits-modi-and-abe-gandhinagar


Japan was the only country besides Bhutan to publicly back India during the 71-day India-China armed standoff at Doklam. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visits India next week for the annual India-Japan Prime Ministerial Summit at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stock has risen in the great power centres worldwide over his resolute handling of the standoff with China and his deft management of the complex relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. That the Doklam imbroglio could have led to a border war, which would have triggered the clauses for legal expropriation of all Chinese assets in India as per the Enemy Property Act 1968, appears to have been a key factor in cooling hotheads in the armed forces of China.


Japan itself faces a threat, which has the capacity of becoming existential. This is with Kim Jong-Un and his regime in Pyongyang. As Prime Minister Shinzo Abe grapples with the unending complications of the breathtakingly tense North Korean crisis—where Kim Jong-Un appears to reserve special venom for Japan, for historical reasons, and with missiles flying over the Japanese islands like ping pong balls— the people in the world’s third largest economy are jittery. Therefore, the strongly worded statements from India have been doubly reassuring. The Japanese side is convinced that India, a rising power, will stand for respect for international law and will not tolerate rogue actions, and the special relationship between the two Prime Ministers Modi and Abe ensures that. The recent Malabar naval exercises of the Navies of India, the United States and Japan have augmented that confidence in India as a strong and reliable partner of Japan.


Unbeknown to most Japanese is the North Korea-Pakistan axis of nuclear and missile proliferation, even from the time of Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan. Some Indian scientists have privately opined that both North Korea and Pakistan could not have advanced so much in both nuclear and missile technologies without concrete scientific and technological help from China. North Korea undoubtedly has become the cause of the most severe migraine that Japan has had since the US started providing a security umbrella after the end of the Second World War 72 years ago. Thus, India—with its own historical links with North Korea through the “non-aligned movement”—breaking with tradition and condemning North Korea for its belligerence is definitely being paid close attention in Tokyo.


Beyond the national security angles, PM Abe along with PM Modi will lay the foundation stones of two flagship projects for mutual economic growth. First the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, which will become the main pathway for Japanese-Indian “Make in India” products and components for export to the growing economies of Africa. It is also fitting that the inaugural events are being held in Gujarat, since it re-emphasises the historical links built by Kutchi traders with Zanzibar in Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries. Abe believes that the Indian diaspora, which is firmly rooted in important countries of South, West and East Africa are the key partners for local distribution, management of spares and servicing, and related work needed for Japanese investment to succeed.


The Japanese are not resident in Africa in most countries in any appreciable numbers, unlike the Chinese. Therefore, there is little risk of the Japanese somehow running by themselves the local operations in African nations of joint ventures and other co-produced products from India. Japan sees India as a good location to manufacture and export to Africa, the Middle-East and Central Asia. Indeed, the Maruti-Suzuki manufactured vehicles in India are exported to 125 countries, a genuine success story for the company, Suzuki, which was once on the verge of bankruptcy because of stiff competition from much larger rivals in Japan like Toyota, Honda and Nissan.


Another important and much-anticipated construction project is the “Shinkansen” bullet train between Ahmedabad and Mumbai. This rail mode has an enviable zero accident record, despite travelling at over 300 kilometres an hour in Japan. Indeed, beyond the bullet train, Japan-India collaboration on enhancing railway safety throughout the country is one of the topics under discussion. The average speed of Indian trains being about 50 kmph, at the Shinkansen speed, the journey from Mumbai to Ahmedabad would be cut to two hours from the current seven hours. However, the new route would require 11 new tunnels, including an undersea tunnel near Mumbai, and, therefore, the total Japanese concessional loan is approximately $12 billion at 0.1% interest, with a 50-year repayment period, as well as a moratorium on payments for the first 15 years, while the route and train construction, training and allied development work is undertaken and passenger journeys get underway. This is the most concessional of loans, at 0.1% interest, that Japan has ever given for commercial-scale projects. It is one of the payoffs of the increasingly close India-Japan multi-faceted relationship.


Both Modi and Abe, who are close friends, will have several rounds of discussions on geopolitical matters, as well as the India and Japan partnership being developed by the two PMs. The two countries have shared values in security stability, promotion of dialogue and engagement with strong legal ground, joint outreach to global market, where Indians are geo-politically strong, and technology collaboration for the new era of strong and sustained growth. The forthcoming Modi-Abe summit is expected by the Japanese side to be a path-breaker in ties between Tokyo and Delhi.


Dr Sunil Chacko, a graduate of Harvard, has been a faculty member in the US, Canada, India and Japan.

TIME TO REUNIFY KOREA

Co-authored with Dr. Jai Ryu


This also appeared at http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/time-to-reunify-korea/article/2570035 and https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/time-reunify-korea-scot-faulkner?trk=prof-post


August 15, 2015 is the 70th Anniversary of the establishment of modern Korea. It is time for some new thinking about reuniting the two Koreas.


Long before last century's partition, Korea had been a unified people since 676 A.D., and flourished in peace for over twelve hundred years. It was only the Allies' actions at the end World War II that tore this longstanding civilization apart.


On March 24, 2014, President Park Geunhye became the first South Korean leader to make reunification a priority. In her "Dresden Speech", she drew parallels to how the German people benefited from reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall, "As I ponder on where a united Germany stands today and where the Korean Peninsula seems headed next year — namely 70 years of division — I find myself overwhelmed by the sheer weight of history … the images of one Germany encourage those of us in Korea to cement our hope and our conviction that unification must also come on the Korean Peninsula."


But how can the dream of reunification become reality?


The world needs to embrace a new dialogue about the inevitability and desirability of reuniting the Korean Peninsula. Leaders across the DMZ and the political spectrum need to think more about people instead of power.


Time is critical. Every year, over 3,800 South Korean citizens pass away without knowing the fate of their loved ones in the North. President Park wants family reunification to be the first substantive and humane step towards re-engagement. Even the years of estrangement between the U.S. and Cuba allowed divided families to interact. Reuniting Korean families should be a priority among international organizations, and the nations participating in the Six Party Talks.


Creating co-prosperity is another action transcending ideology for the greater good. China understood this when it established Special Economic Zones in August 1980. North Korea is already reaching out for foreign investment and knowledge. They have established their own version of SEZs. The challenge is whether North Korean SEZs will stimulate real economic reform and openness, as in China, or be a cynical attempt to exploit Western naiveté and steal resources, as with Lenin's New Economic Policy in the USSR during the 1920s.


President Park is willing to take that chance and lead South Korea into an economic partnership with North Korea. South Korean companies could become major employers of North Koreans. These companies could also begin the long process of improving North Korea's infrastructure. Viable roads, rails and bridges are needed to support the supply chains to support successful SEZ factories.


South Korea is realistic about co-prosperity. The Kaeson Industrial Region failed in 2013 because the North Korean government expected South Korean companies to act like parastatals and become another cog in communism. The new North Korean SEZs will be based upon lessons learned from Kaeson.


Another learning curve is occurring with the Choson Exchanges. In this case, North Korea is sending some of their "best and brightest", especially women, to China, Indonesia and other Asian countries to learn about private sector management. They need western companies in the SEZs so they can apply their new knowledge.


The Soviets failed when they tried to append capitalist principles to dysfunctional state-run industries and unrealistic five-year plans. North Korea needs to understand the truism that state-run companies will fail no matter how many outside ideas are introduced. Underlying statist principles absorb and destroy free market ideas like white cells attacking infection. Only through credible and viable SEZs will North Koreans realize the benefits of these early forays into the world beyond their borders.


Beyond SEZs, North Korea should be open to South Korean partnerships to fully realize the potential of its vast natural wealth. North Korea has reserves of more than 200 mineral types distributed over 80% of its territory. Developing these natural resources could dramatically increase the wealth of North Korea. South Korea and China would benefit from access to these minerals. Revenue from mineral exports could fund improvements in the North's agriculture that would bring real nutrition to its people.


The bottom line is that China and South Korea have a vested interest in bringing North Korea into the family of nations. Real economic development will improve the health and well-being of the North Korean people. Reuniting families and opening economic exchange would be the first steps toward reuniting an ancient culture, benefitting the region and the world. Openness and interaction offer North Koreans a better future than living in an isolated pariah state.


Dr. Jai Ryu is the founder of One Dream One Korea and professor emeritus at Loyola University Maryland; Scot Faulkner served as Chief Administrative Officer of the U.S. House of Representatives and as a Member of the Reagan White House staff. He is Senior Advisor to One Dream One Korea.