Saturday, October 24, 2020

THE GASLIGHT ELECTION

 


[Published on Newsmax]

2020 is the single most important election since 1860.

This is not hyperbole.  The future of America’s representative democracy is at stake.

The Left plans to change fundamental policies that will cripple earnings and economic vitality.  More ominous, the Left is planning to change the rules that have governed America since 1789.  Their sole purpose is to achieve permanent power.

More frightening is that these threats are being successfully hidden from the electorate.

America’s news media took a sharp left turn in the 1960s.  During the 21st Century, what is considered the “Mainstream Media” (MSM) dropped all pretense of being professional journalism.  They are overtly the Left’s propaganda arm.  “News anchors” and talk show moderators are no longer selected from working reporters, but from career political operatives.  The result is an echo chamber of anti-Americanism, and now anti-Trump.

This Leftist echo chamber now dominates over 95 percent of television, radio, print, and digital “news”. Except for a handful of conservative radio personalities, Fox Cable news shows, and blogs, the Left’s echo chamber shapes an alternate reality that may propel the Democrats into the White House and a Senate Majority.

The classic 1944 movie “Gaslight” is about a diabolical villain who creates an alternative reality to drive his victim insane to reap riches.  The term “Gaslighting” is based on this process of creating a fraudulent reality so the victim makes wrong decisions to their detriment.

That is what 2020 is about.  It is the Gaslight Election.

Since the Summer of 2016, the Left’s echo chamber has created a narrative, fueled by the bogus Steele Dossier, that Russian leaders are puppeteers controlling Trump and his inner circle.  Wild assertions went unchallenged.  A fake whistle blower, coached by Congressional Democrats and shaped by secretly backdated regulations, launched a reckless Impeachment. 

While the entire scheme of lashing Trump to Russia, and then Ukraine, was exposed as a fraud, the Left’s echo chamber barely reports it.  In fact, most of the echo chamber reprises Russia, unchallenged, whenever it can.  Tragically, Judicial Watch has had to sue Trump agencies to force the release of exculpatory information.  Career bureaucrats have successfully delayed these facts from entering the public domain.

At the same time, former Vice President Biden is on video bragging about doing exactly what was the basis of Trump’s Impeachment to laughter and applause by the Washington, DC elite.  Efforts to hold Biden accountable have been thwarted by FBI and intelligence officials for years.  The Lefts’ echo chamber remains silent.  It is just as important to not report something.

The Lefts’ echo chamber also set the ultimate trap for Trump’s re-election.  COVID-19 remains Trump’s Achilles Heel because scary and highly inaccurate models generated by the Imperial College on March 16, 2020 forced America’s economic suicide.  The Left’s echo chamber demanded that Trump shut down his booming economy to prevent millions of deaths.  The model turned out to be fundamentally flawed.  Now the Left’s echo chamber blames Trump for this year’s economic downturn. Leftist Governors use their independence under Federalism to enforce draconian lockdown measures not based on current science.  This slows the economic recovery through election day.

Biden, Harris, and their media allies, wear masks every time they are on camera.  They wear masks when they are outdoors and over thirty feet from others.  No science or health organization recommends this.  It serves as a symbol for COVID-19 remaining a dire threat and Trump is to blame.  The Lefts’ echo chamber makes no effort to question this shameless propaganda ploy.  Instead it promotes it.

The Left creates visual equivalency by providing only tight shots of Biden and Harris at their podiums, ignoring the fact that less than ten people are in the audience.  Trump’s 20,000+ rallies are either not covered at all or show only tight podium shots.  Biden’s countless lies about his attending Black churches and colleges, his groundless assertions, and his fiction about awarding medals, remain unchallenged.  His radical agenda for the Green New Deal, tax increases, and aggressive gun control goes unreported.  Alternatively, debunked accusations, like Trump hating the armed forces, dominate news cycles.

The Left over-samples registered Democrats, sometimes over 50% to only 38% or less for Republicans, to generate polls showing Biden trouncing Trump.

The Left’s Gaslight Election may succeed because over 50 million have early voted, just as facts about the Biden family’s foreign influence peddling is slowly seeping out.  Congressional Republicans’ glacial investigative pace enables the Left’s reality.

 A Democrat sweep in November will be tragic for everyone except the liberal elite. Trump’s tax cuts will be erased, and new taxes added.  Four years of regulatory relief will evaporate.  All of Trump’s government reform Executive Orders will be voided within hours of the Inauguration.  Gun control will rapidly expand. The 1619 anti-American indoctrination curriculum will be forced into every classroom. Illegal aliens will be granted wholesale amnesty and added to the voter rolls.  American energy independence will vanish, and Americans will suffer from the absurd policies that have made California the land of rolling blackouts.  Hollywood and Sports celebrities will roar back into prominence, virtue signaling Americans about race relations and carbon footprints.  

Worse, all investigations of Biden, Obama, Clinton, and the Deep State will end within hours of a Biden/Democrat victory, extinguishing any hope that truth will prevail.

Friday, September 25, 2020

ELECTORAL COLLEGE: Lots of Guessing!

 

[Guest Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh Sr.] 

I often wonder how some of these psephologists draw their conclusions. I’m going to present one table with three different predictions about the electoral college outcome for the 2020 election. It’s why in a previous blog article I posited that many of these polls are derived from either outdated models or wishful thinking.

A good starting point might be how wrong these conclusions are. It is obvious from the 2016 election that most pundits were wrong: they mostly predicted Clinton to win over Trump. One projection I looked at was made September 2, 2016 (Kiplinger): Clinton wins with 290 electors to trumps 191 with 56 being toss-ups – approximately 2 months before the election! How about an even closer one on November 6, 2016 (politicsplus): Clinton wins with 300 to 236 – two days before the election!

Well, this year is not much better in terms of spread. The EC NUM is the number of electors for each state.  REP is Republican; DEM is Democrat. LEAN to REP means leans Republican; LEAN to the DEM means leans Democrat. A complete explanation of the tables follows the predictions presented below:

                                                                     BOVADA      BETONLIN                     REAL CLEAR POL.

                                     EC       2016 Elect   2020 Elect   2020 Elect    *********2020 Elect*********

STATE                       NUM   REP    DEM  REP  DEM     REP   DEM   TOT  REP LEAN  TOT  DEM   LEAN

Florida

29

29

29

29

0

0

 

Maine

4

1

3

1

3

4

0

3

1

2

 

Michigan

16

16

 

16

16

0

0

 

Pennsylvania

20

20

 

20

20

0

0

 

Wisconsin

10

10

 

10

 

10

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL ALL

538

306

232

249

289

219

319

125

92

33

222

169

53

 

 

REAL CLEAR UNDECIDED

 

 

Arizona

11

11

 

11

11

0

0

 

Florida

29

29

29

29

0

0

 

Georgia

16

16

16

16

0

0

 

Iowa

6

6

6

6

0

0

 

Maine

1

1

3

1

3

4

0

3

1

2

 

Michigan

16

16

 

16

16

0

0

 

Nebraska

1

4

5

5

4

4

0

 

Nevada

6

6

6

6

0

0

 

New Hampshire

4

4

4

4

0

0

 

North Carolina

15

15

15

15

0

0

 

Ohio

18

18

18

18

0

0

 

Pennsylvania

20

20

 

20

20

0

0

 

Texas

38

38

38

38

0

0

 

Wisconsin

10

10

 

10

 

10

0

0

 

 

 

 

TOTAL     191


 

 

 

Web Sites:

www.bovada.lv/sports/politics

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/politics/electoral-college

https://www1.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html


A couple of notes about the table. The row labeled TOTAL ALL is the total number of electors for each column. The other states have not been presented in this table because the other states agreed with each other in the polls and obfuscated the discussion. Two of the sources present the electors as going to either the Republicans or the Democrats. Real Clear Politics presents those two options as well as Undecided. The states in BOLD highlight an elector difference from the 2016 election. The one thing that should be evident is that there are three different outcomes presented (there are, of course, many other projections in other sites). In my opinion the BOVADA results are the most probable. This will be discussed below in terms of possible modifications. The BETONLINE outcome is the absolute worst for Trump – and I personally believe it is a Democrat fantasy.

The third outcome, REALPOLITICS, also fascinates me because of the number of undecided outcomes. I find it very interesting that the polls are able to predict Biden to win when there are 191 electors undecided at this point. I can only figure that there is another model that is tracking popular vote. I believe Trump will not win the popular vote; but as will be shown below, I do believe he will win the electoral college again! What does this mean for the 2020 election? My logic follows.

Well first off, these sources concede that there are certain states that are pretty sure are going to basically follow the results of the 2016 election. That being the case, it highlights the states that are going to probably decide the election outcome. One glaring difference is Florida: Trump absolutely needs this state to win – and I believe that he will. It is contested – two of the sources are at odds about this win – I’m going to give FL to Trump making the electoral count Biden 249 to 232 (as presented). This is primarily because I believe the retirees in that state will be concerned about their retirement portfolio under Biden and the fact that Trump seems to be picking up more of the Cuban vote than he had in the 2016 election.

Now for another discussion. Pennsylvania is a state that I believe is going to go to the Republicans, not the Democrats. If a person came to you and said: I’m going to eliminate your job, destroy the industry that you work in (a.k.a. as your career), raise your taxes, and try to foist all aspects of a socialist agenda on you, honestly – would you vote for this person? The Reasonable Man theory and the Prudent Man theory would suggest a NO vote. I’m going to go with this and common sense and say the majority of people will vote for Trump. That makes the vote Biden 229 to 252.

The next state, Michigan, Trump won 2016, and I project he will win the state in 2020 also. There is tremendous anger with Gov. Whitmer and the shutdown, gun ownership and the Second Amendment, taxes – just a whole bunch of things that I don’t think that population is going to want – which is what they will get under Biden. Also, there have been favorable trade deals for farmers. That makes it Biden 213 to Trump 268. The other two votes can be harvested from many other states either because they were undecided, or switch their voting preference from 2016.


One final comment is about who is projected to win Ohio. Two of the polls, BOVADA and BETONLINE, have conceded Ohio to Trump. What does this mean? “Since 1896, Ohio has had only two misses in the general election (Thomas E. Dewey in 1944 and Richard Nixon in 1960) and has the longest perfect streak of any state, voting for the winning presidential candidate in each election since 1964, and in 33 of the 37 held since the Civil War. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, and since the advent of the modern two-party system, only two Democrats have ever won the presidency without winning Ohio (in 1884/1892 and 1960).” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Ohio

 

Trump is my projected winner!

Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.