AFGHANISTAN's TRAGIC LEGACY

 

[Published in the Sunday Guardian of India - 9/11’s prologue and epilogue - The Sunday Guardian Live]

For those old enough to remember, 11 September 2001, 9.03 a.m. is burned into our collective memory. It was at that moment that United Flight 175 crashed into the South Tower of the World Trade Center in New York City.

For the first time since the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941, Americans were collectively experiencing horrifying carnage from a coordinated attack on their soil.

The final accounting was devastating: 2,977 killed and over 25,000 injured. The death toll continues to climb as first responders and building survivors perish from respiratory conditions caused by inhaling the chemical-laden smoke. It was the deadliest terrorist attack in human history.

The 911 attacks were central to Osama bin Laden’s goal of luring infidel governments into “long wars of attrition in Muslim countries, attracting large numbers of jihadists who would never surrender”. Bin Laden believed this would lead to economic collapse of the infidels, by “bleeding” them dry. Bin Laden outlined his strategy of “bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy” in a 2004 tape released through Al Jazeera.

The driving force behind Bin Laden’s strategy was Wahhabism, a strict, anti-Western version of Sunni Islam.

It all began with the Saudi Royal Family’s ties to Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab (1703-1792). Wahhab envisioned a “pure” form of Islam that purged most worldly practices (heresies), oppressed women, and promoted violence against nonbelievers (infidels), including Muslims who differed with his sect. This extremely conservative and violent form of Islam might have died out in the sands of central Arabia were it not for a timely alliance with a local tribal leader, Muhammad bin Saud.

Bin Saud led a minor tribe, until he and Wahhab realized the power of merging Sunni fanaticism with armed warriors. Wahhab’s daughter married Saud’s son, merging their two blood lines to this day. The House of Saud and its warriors rapidly expanded throughout the Arabia Peninsula, fueled by Wahhabism.

In the early 20^th century, Saudi leader, Ibn Saud, consolidated his permanent hold over the Arabian Peninsula. Control of Mecca and Medina, Islam’s two holiest sites, gave the Saud family the power to promote Wahhabism as the dominant interpretation of Sunni Islam.

In the mid-1970s, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia used the flood of oil revenue to become the “McDonalds of Madrasas”.

Religious schools and new mosques popped up throughout Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, designed to spread the cult of Wahhabism. Pakistan became a major hub for turning Wahhabi madrasa graduates into dedicated terrorists.

Wahhabi terrorists built a diffused terrorist network. Then some decided to exploit the perpetual bloodfest in Afghanistan.

In 1973, a military coup deposed the last king of Afghanistan. In 1978, Soviet-backed guerrillas killed the military leaders and seized control. This ignited an Afghan civil war, which pitted proxy forces against each other. These forces were backed by Pakistan, China, Islamists (known as the Mujahideen), and the Soviets.

During 1979, the Soviet puppet leader was assassinated and another installed. On 24 December 1979, the Soviet Union took direct action by invading Afghanistan, killing their most recent puppet President, and bringing over 100,000 military personnel into the country. A vicious war erupted between the Soviet military and various Afghan guerrilla factions. Over two million Afghans died.

The Reagan Administration supported the anti-Soviet Afghan insurgents, primarily aiding the secular pro-west Northern Alliance. Arab nations supported the Mujahideen. Osama bin Laden entered the insurgent caldera as a Mujahideen financier and fighter. The Soviets, realizing their occupation was failing, removed their troops and equipment in 1988, leaving behind another puppet government.

After the Soviet Union withdrawal, calls for reunifying Afghanistan by re-establishing the monarchy and strengthening regional leadership went unheeded. Installing a faction-ravaged parliamentary system only led to a new civil war.

By September 1994, the grisly chaos, and US ambivalence about Afghanistan, opened the door for the Taliban, graduates from Pakistan’s Wahhabi madrasas, to begin their crusade to take control of the country. By 1998, the Taliban controlled 90% of Afghanistan.

Osama bin Laden, and his Al-Qaeda warriors, made Taliban-controlled territory in Afghanistan their new base of operations. In exchange, Bin Laden helped the Taliban eliminate their remaining opponents throughout Afghanistan. Bin Laden completed his end of the bargain on 9 September 2001, when Al-Qaeda suicide bombers disguised as a television camera crew blew up Ahmad Shah Massoud, the charismatic, pro-West leader of the Northern Alliance.

Two days later, Bin Laden set his “lure”, with the hijacking of four planes and turning them into guided bombs headed to New York City and Washington, DC.

Osama bin Laden’s “lure” strategy worked. 911 pulled America into Afghanistan.

The recent horrors prove Bin Laden’s strategy continues to shape events.

INDIA & JAPAN STANDING TOGETHER

Dr. Sunil Chacko - Guest Columnist


Also published at http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/10801-crowded-agenda-awaits-modi-and-abe-gandhinagar


Japan was the only country besides Bhutan to publicly back India during the 71-day India-China armed standoff at Doklam. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visits India next week for the annual India-Japan Prime Ministerial Summit at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stock has risen in the great power centres worldwide over his resolute handling of the standoff with China and his deft management of the complex relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. That the Doklam imbroglio could have led to a border war, which would have triggered the clauses for legal expropriation of all Chinese assets in India as per the Enemy Property Act 1968, appears to have been a key factor in cooling hotheads in the armed forces of China.


Japan itself faces a threat, which has the capacity of becoming existential. This is with Kim Jong-Un and his regime in Pyongyang. As Prime Minister Shinzo Abe grapples with the unending complications of the breathtakingly tense North Korean crisis—where Kim Jong-Un appears to reserve special venom for Japan, for historical reasons, and with missiles flying over the Japanese islands like ping pong balls— the people in the world’s third largest economy are jittery. Therefore, the strongly worded statements from India have been doubly reassuring. The Japanese side is convinced that India, a rising power, will stand for respect for international law and will not tolerate rogue actions, and the special relationship between the two Prime Ministers Modi and Abe ensures that. The recent Malabar naval exercises of the Navies of India, the United States and Japan have augmented that confidence in India as a strong and reliable partner of Japan.


Unbeknown to most Japanese is the North Korea-Pakistan axis of nuclear and missile proliferation, even from the time of Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan. Some Indian scientists have privately opined that both North Korea and Pakistan could not have advanced so much in both nuclear and missile technologies without concrete scientific and technological help from China. North Korea undoubtedly has become the cause of the most severe migraine that Japan has had since the US started providing a security umbrella after the end of the Second World War 72 years ago. Thus, India—with its own historical links with North Korea through the “non-aligned movement”—breaking with tradition and condemning North Korea for its belligerence is definitely being paid close attention in Tokyo.


Beyond the national security angles, PM Abe along with PM Modi will lay the foundation stones of two flagship projects for mutual economic growth. First the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, which will become the main pathway for Japanese-Indian “Make in India” products and components for export to the growing economies of Africa. It is also fitting that the inaugural events are being held in Gujarat, since it re-emphasises the historical links built by Kutchi traders with Zanzibar in Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries. Abe believes that the Indian diaspora, which is firmly rooted in important countries of South, West and East Africa are the key partners for local distribution, management of spares and servicing, and related work needed for Japanese investment to succeed.


The Japanese are not resident in Africa in most countries in any appreciable numbers, unlike the Chinese. Therefore, there is little risk of the Japanese somehow running by themselves the local operations in African nations of joint ventures and other co-produced products from India. Japan sees India as a good location to manufacture and export to Africa, the Middle-East and Central Asia. Indeed, the Maruti-Suzuki manufactured vehicles in India are exported to 125 countries, a genuine success story for the company, Suzuki, which was once on the verge of bankruptcy because of stiff competition from much larger rivals in Japan like Toyota, Honda and Nissan.


Another important and much-anticipated construction project is the “Shinkansen” bullet train between Ahmedabad and Mumbai. This rail mode has an enviable zero accident record, despite travelling at over 300 kilometres an hour in Japan. Indeed, beyond the bullet train, Japan-India collaboration on enhancing railway safety throughout the country is one of the topics under discussion. The average speed of Indian trains being about 50 kmph, at the Shinkansen speed, the journey from Mumbai to Ahmedabad would be cut to two hours from the current seven hours. However, the new route would require 11 new tunnels, including an undersea tunnel near Mumbai, and, therefore, the total Japanese concessional loan is approximately $12 billion at 0.1% interest, with a 50-year repayment period, as well as a moratorium on payments for the first 15 years, while the route and train construction, training and allied development work is undertaken and passenger journeys get underway. This is the most concessional of loans, at 0.1% interest, that Japan has ever given for commercial-scale projects. It is one of the payoffs of the increasingly close India-Japan multi-faceted relationship.


Both Modi and Abe, who are close friends, will have several rounds of discussions on geopolitical matters, as well as the India and Japan partnership being developed by the two PMs. The two countries have shared values in security stability, promotion of dialogue and engagement with strong legal ground, joint outreach to global market, where Indians are geo-politically strong, and technology collaboration for the new era of strong and sustained growth. The forthcoming Modi-Abe summit is expected by the Japanese side to be a path-breaker in ties between Tokyo and Delhi.


Dr Sunil Chacko, a graduate of Harvard, has been a faculty member in the US, Canada, India and Japan.