CHINA RISING

[Published on Newsmax]

While U.S. politicians and the media are mud wrestling over the 2016 and 2020 elections China is resetting the global chess board.

China’s President Xi JinPing was just in Paris for the Global Governance Forum.  He assured European leaders that his Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a universal good and poses no threat to the West.

China launched the BRI in 2013 as a massive infrastructure project establishing the ancient Silk Road as the epicenter of 21^st Century transport and trade.  China has recruited 125 nations to participate and pledged $150 billion a year to make it a reality.

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker all praised Xi’s leadership in global development.

Xi’s European sojourn follows his three-day BRI conference in Beijing, attended by representatives of the 125 nations involved in China’s epic venture.

China is methodically implementing an aggressive and comprehensive strategy to become the world’s dominate economic power by 2050.  In 2018, the 19^th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress openly espoused this goal.

China’s “New Era” strategy echoes the mercantile policies of the 18^th Century and 19^th Century imperialism.  Its world view builds on lessons learned during the Cold War.

During the Cold War the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. globally competed for strategic resources and control of sea routes.  The Soviets were driven by a Communist world view to forcibly take over the world and crush Western Democracy and freedom.  Soviet military and intelligence assets toppled governments, supported insurgencies, and undermined Western resolve.

The U.S. responded with a tepid “containment” strategy that ceded large swaths of the world to communist tyranny.  Soviet “agents of influence” obfuscated true intentions by labeling Communist guerilla bands “agrarian reformers”.  Liberal allies were recruited in government, academia, and the media to confuse issues, overcomplicate solutions, and bungle counter measures. 

Both East and West framed much of their efforts as economic reform or development.  The communists destroyed whole populations with murder and starvation.  The West killed with kindness.  Liberal academicians, instead of business people, ran development agencies that spent trillions on poorly conceived and implemented projects.  The Developing World is littered with empty buildings, rusting tractors, and environmentally damaged landscapes.

Is it any wonder that China’s approach is making headway?

Starting in 2000, China began pouring money into highly targeted projects in Africa.  They either directly built and ran the project or offered enticing loans.

The direct approach was for China to takeover a natural resource, such as a mine, take over the port for shipping the resource, and building rail and road links between them.  Chinese workers run everything.  There is no effort to employ or engage “host county nationals” (HNCs).  One by one, China has solidified control over strategic mineral resources and ports throughout Africa.

When direct control is not immediately available, China initiated “Debt Trap Diplomacy” (DTD).

The most recent DTD vestige is China gaining control of the Kenyan port of Mombasa.

Mombasa is the third largest port in Africa.  China’s long-term power play started with loaning the Kenya government funds to develop the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR). The SGR links to the new Inland Container Depot in Nairobi, which receives, and dispatches, freight hauled on the new cargo trains from Mombasa.  Earlier this year, China called in its loan, which it knew Kenya could not afford. In one act, China now owns a key port on the Indian Ocean and its supportive infrastructure.

The Mombasa seizure follows other China DTD activities.  In December 2017, the Sri Lankan government lost the port of Hambantota to China, for a lease period of 99 years.  This happened after failing to repay billions of dollars in loans.

China remains unchallenged on making its 2050 vision a reality.

This is because the United States has no idea what it should be doing in the world.

Starting with the Spanish-American War, America had a very clear idea of its role in the world.  John Philip Sousa’s composed his famous “Stars and Stripes Forever” to honor Admiral Dewey’s victory against the Spanish fleet in Manila Bay.  It embodied the patriotic fervor that would propel America for the next ninety-four years. 

Theodore Roosevelt earned a Nobel Peace Prize for settling the Russo-Japanese War.  “The Yanks are Coming” heralded America’s entry into World War I.  On December 29, 1940, Franklin Roosevelt declared the U.S. the “arsenal of democracy” to help stem the tide of tyranny and lead to winning World War II.  Ronald Reagan described the U.S. as the “shining city on the hill” to serve as a beacon of hope, inspiring millions to topple the Soviet Empire.

America has had no actionable global strategy since the Berlin Wall fell. 

China has filled the void.  

GOP needs Adult Supervision

[Guest Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr.]

“I send my messenger before you….”

One day when I was reading the Bible and meditating, I thought I would go back and reread the book of Mark. As I read the opening passage about John the Baptist, I was struck by this opening passage. Given the power of our Heavenly Father, why didn't Jesus just come as a mandate? Why was it necessary to “… send my messenger before you ….”?

There are significant spiritual ramifications to this event; the primary purpose was to prepare the world for the coming of the Son of God. However, this is more than a religious lesson. It is also an interesting question because it suggests a level of understanding that transcends the religious implications. It actually discloses a management issue and how to work with others by laying the foundation for a much larger event that is yet to happen.

I had mentioned in a previous blog (12/13/2012) that the Republican Party needs a paradigm shift. Today, after watching another month of incompetence, I am more convinced than ever that something has to be done – or else Republican Party will become so marginalized as to make this country a one-party system. Until the “leaders” of the Republican Party subordinate their own personal interests and bloviating and focus on what is necessary and good for the people of the United States of America, we will have continual confusion and lack of direction for the conservatives in this country. There is no platform, no game plan, and no direction on how the Republican Party might capture the Senate in 2014 much less the presidency in 2016. I don't know, but maybe there is activity going on behind the scenes. If so, I would strongly suggest that these ideas manifest themselves now in a general discussion: people tend to support, that which they help create. I learned this management principle when I was a teenager; it is as true today as it was then.

In my previous blog I indicated that one of the primary problems the Republican Party has today is communication: there is none. In a blog by Scot Faulkner (1/18/2013), he asks the very relevant question: “How did you spend the last 806 days?” The Republican Party answer appears to be in handwringing, unfocused sound bites, and obstructionism – the result of not having a cogent plan on the direction the Republican Party should be taking. Communication is one of man’s greatest assets; planning – setting goals, developing strategies, and defining tasks and schedules to accomplish goals – is another. Right now the Republican Party is in crisis and needs both planning and communication.

I currently believe that America is like a transmission in a car, and the country is shifting gears. The clutch is in, and the gear choices are liberal or conservative. When the clutch is disengaged, the country will again begin moving: the question is in which direction? To give credit where credit is due, the liberals have done an excellent job in capturing the majority of the population – or so it would seem. Will the country engage in a cyclical swing and by itself move to a conservative position – a kind of political hysteresis? Possibly. But it would make a lot more sense if the Republican Party could restructure itself (i.e., a paradigm shift) to recognize that the country has changed; far right thinking needs to be moderated, and a new message of inclusion needs to be articulated. Franklin Roosevelt once said: “Wise and prudent men – intelligent conservatives – have long known that in a changing world worthy institutions can be conserved only by adjusting them to the changing time.” It's kind of sad that the Republican Party has to get this kind of message from one of the most liberal presidents of our time; it's almost like a taunt.

The theme of this blog started: “I send my messenger before you….” I would suggest that the Party’s focus be on the presidency in 2016; there is an overwhelming inertia that must be overcome to convince the electorate that the Republican Party has indeed been reformed and is now the best party to represent “we, the people.” The way that this is going to happen is by a qualified leader within the Republican Party taking the reins and standing up to the establishment and saying “I'm going to lead this party and make it the overwhelming choice of the people of the United States.” This person will have to have the leadership, charisma, and communication skills to convincingly implement a strategy that actually has robust, well defined ideas and plans to bring the United States back into prominence. This person will probably not be a candidate for the presidency in 2016; they are excluded almost by definition of what their mission is within this context: establish the infrastructure that will put a Republican in the White House in 2016. Any gains that can be gleaned in the 2014 interim elections would be a bonus; success or failure might also be reflective of whether or not this strategy is working to bring about the change that is necessary to save the Republican Party and conservatism. Einstein's famous definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. We have had enough insanity – it's time to move on.

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Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.