[Guest
Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh Sr.]
All of the
pundits seem to feel that there is going to be a blue wave this
November, and the Democrats are going to trounce the Republicans.
Historically, in the off year of a presidential election, the Party
in control of the White House loses seats in the Congress. This is
not going to happen this November. I do not have any algorithms; I
also do not have any computer models. However, what these
psephologists and others who perform statistical
analyses of elections and polls have not recognized is there has been
a paradigm shift in the electorate. The old models are just not going
to work anymore. I made this observation, “The Birth of the
Electorate Paradigm Shift,” in Citizen Oversight’s August 2015
posting, “…why should we, the electorate, believe
any of it? It is the ‘same old – same old’ because the majority
of the candidates are calcified bureaucrats … who espouse
non-winning strategies.” I wrote that there’s been “…a change
in the direction and tone of conversations, interviews, and stump
speeches concerning many topics which are of interest to most
Americans (not so much politicians – except as it relates to their
electability).”
Let’s
look at some numbers. In the Senate 35 seats are up for reelection
(includes MN and MS special elections); 26 of those seats are held by
Democrats, and they need 2 seats to take control. All 435 House seats
are up for reelection; probably 215 “favor” Republicans and 200
“favor” Democrats. That means approximately 20 to 25 seats are
tossups. Here is where I diverge in my projections from everyone else
because I believe the days of Party voting are on the wane. I believe
that the electorate is going to be influenced by the people who vote
based on the Zeitgeist (German Zeit or “time” and Geist or
“Ghost”, specifically, the spirit or invisible force of that
period). It will be this
defining spirit or mood of the people that will determine the outcome
of this election. Included in this assessment are economic issues
such as taxation, regulation, employment/unemployment, immigration,
terrorism, and social issues. Regardless of regional differences, all
will be judged according to what’s happening in Washington.
I
think that the midterm elections are going to be decided by those
motivated voters who have had enough of the Democratic Party and
RINOs and their continued refusal to accept the fact that Donald
Trump won the election. Between them and the liberal press, voters
have grown tired of only hearing the negatives about the President
and our country. In a recent article reported in CNS News, “Today's
strong economy is the result of President Donald Trump's policies,
according to a recent poll by CBS News, which also showed that nearly
half of Americans believe Trump is keeping a good number of his
campaign promises. …. As for the 2018 congressional elections, 34%
said they would prefer to vote for a ‘Republican who is more in
line with Donald Trump.’ Only 22% said they would prefer to vote
for ‘a progressive of [sic] liberal Democrat.’” The same poll
reported that 72% (of Democrats and Independents) want a Democratic
candidate who will promote a progressive agenda; 28% want a candidate
who will oppose Trump’s agenda.
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/michael-w-chapman/cbs-poll-68-credit-president-trump-current-economy
I have thought
about this continued resistance to everything that is “Trump”,
and I have finally concluded that the model to explain this is
the Kübler-Ross
model,
otherwise known as the five
stages of grief.
The five stages are: anger, denial, bargaining, depression, and
acceptance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model
Let’s start with the first stage: anger. It would be hard to find
anyone who is a Democrat (and some Republicans) who is not angry that
Trump won; I have never seen so much anger and hatred after a
national election. The second stage, denial, is evident in the fact
that Democrats and Republicans (especially RINOs) are trying to
completely ignore him by refusing to accept the fact he is the
President (and leader of the Republican Party) by trying to
circumvent or prevent his programs. The third stage of bargaining is
beginning to creep into the National agenda; it appears that Congress
and the Democrats sort of realize he is the President and are trying
– in some cases – to find common ground. The fourth stage of
depression will occur if the Republicans retain control of both the
Senate and the House; I am pretty sure this will put the Democrats
over the edge. The last stage, acceptance, will occur at some point
between 2020 and 2022. In my opinion this might be the most dangerous
stage because the Democrats will regroup and try to refocus an agenda
that will resonate with the electorate – and not just be an
anti-Trump campaign strategy.
I
believe that the voters are going to go to the polls this November
with the intent of voting out the incumbents – both Republicans and
Democrats. I believe that this anger will be more directed at the
Senate level; the numbers (presented previously) favor Republicans
coming out on top because of the number of seats up for
election/reelection. I believe that the house will be less chaotic
because it is a more “personal environment (i.e., smaller
jurisdictions). There will be some juggling within the incumbency,
but overall I believe the Republicans will come close to keeping
control of their existing numbers. The 20 or so House seats that are
undecided will probably add to the Republican’s majority.
Obviously, a lot
can happen between now and November. I’m going to believe that the
positive direction present in Trump’s performance is going to
continue. The Consumer Confidence Index is increasing, job openings
are increasing, and unemployment is declining. Hopefully the positive
things that he is doing will be reported on by the media, and people
will realize that Trump is really Making America Great Again! And
Americans prefer winners who play fairly. When a campaign ad starts
off something like “I’m going to show Trump!” – well, you
know that person is a loser who will probably not play fair. As far
as the anger against incumbents, James Madison, referring to the
House of Representatives, wrote in The Federalist Papers,
No. 57: “. . . [T]hey can make
no law which will not have its full operation on themselves and their
friends, as well as on the great mass of the society. If it be asked,
what is to restrain the House of Representatives from making legal
discriminations in favor of themselves and a particular class of the
society? … I answer: the genius of the whole system; the nature of
just and constitutional laws; and above all, the vigilant and manly
spirit which actuates the people of America -- a spirit which
nourishes freedom, and in return is nourished by it.” While this
particular comment is applicable to both parties, the point is that
the electorate is upset – and this is just one more reason. Also,
according to the latest Gallup Poll, 17% approve of the way Congress
is doing their job, but 79% disapprove. Blue wave – I don’t think
so, but I do think that somebody’s going to pay!
Donald
G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the
University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration
degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate
Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of
Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.
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