REPUBLICAN DEATH WISH - ELECTION 2018

Also published on Newsmax.

Campaign losses are more “suicides” than “homicides”.

The Republicans were poised to beat the odds during the 2018 “Mid-term” election, then everything went wrong. Trump’s last minute targeting of key Senate races recovered some, but not all, of the opportunities for Republican gains. The House was another matter.

History was on the Republicans’ side - Trump’s 2016 victory did not extend to House or Senate races. Democrats gained two Senate seats and six House seats. The absence of “coat tails” meant there was a dearth of “at risk” Congressional Republicans. At the same time, ten Democrat Senate incumbents, who had benefited from Obama’s 2012 trouncing of Romney, were potentially easy targets in states where Trump won handily.

Enter the Lemming Factor. 

It did not take long for media pundits and liberal pollsters to declare that Trump’s behavior and policies would generate a “Blue Wave” overwhelming Republicans in 2018. The prevailing wisdom was that dozens of Republican incumbents in Districts won by Hillary Clinton were going to be decimated. Easily spooked Republicans bought into this analysis. They overlooked the fact that the Republicans who won in 2016 Hillary Districts were the strongest, not the weakest going into 2018. 

Facts did not matter. On November 9, 2017, Rep. Bob Goodlatte, Chair of the House Judiciary Committee and an incumbent who consistently won re-election by over 60%, announced his retirement. Other Republican incumbents soon opted to leave. By early 2018, 26 safe Republicans, who had weathered Hillary’s best effort, had retired, creating potential for Democrat gains. Surprisingly, more than enough for Democrats to retake the House.

Republicans actually began losing the House in February 2017. Speaker Ryan and his leadership team determined their best course of action was to distance themselves from their new Republican President. 

Ryan missed the opportunity to coordinate with the Republican run Executive Branch to open and re-open investigations against Obama, Clinton, and all their minions. This could have included delivering the Comey Report on Hillary Clinton’s email abuses to a Grand Jury and inevitable indictments. Every witness who refused to testify under Obama could be forced to testify. Every document refused under Obama could be released. 

Aggressively exposing Obama/Clinton misdeeds 24/7 would have build the case for Republican government and crippled Democrat candidate recruitment and fundraising for 2018.

Ryan and his committee Chairs blew it, and paid the price. The Democrats caught their breath and rebounded from 2016. Unfortunately, starting in January 2018, House Democrats will show Republicans how total war is waged - 85 subpoenas are already being prepared. 

Trump also contributed to Congressional losses. He laid the ground work for defeat in March 2016 when his inner circle chose to ignore advice and offers for help from Reagan alumni. Trump and his team embraced Washington functionaries from Bush, Romney, and Never Trumper networks to plan and run his Presidential Transition. 

In 1981, the Reagan Transition and early White House relentlessly tracked down and removed every Carter operative and all Democrats who had careered into the bureaucracy. Every possible threat to Reagan’s revolution was marched out the door, stripped of their security clearances. By March 1981, Reagan had a clear path to greatness.

Thanks for bad, possibly malicious, advice Trump left large swaths of Obama/Clinton operatives in place, along with their security clearances and access. In the name of austerity, Trump’s slow, and in many cases nonexistent, insertion of loyalists into key Executive Branch positions left him open to being blindsided, undermined, and outmaneuvered. Chief of Staff, Reince Priebus, filled White House and Agency slots with “RINOgators” from among his Republican National Committee associates. This meant countless opportunities were lost to make Trump’s revolution a lasting operational reality beyond Executive Orders.

Trump’s final error was not declassifying, unredacting, and releasing all documents relating to the bogus Russian collusion probe. Starting months before the election, Nunes and a small band of Congressional Trump loyalists, along with conservative pundits, pleaded for Trump to release these documents. Exposing “sources and methods” was not an issue. The “Deep State” wanted to avoid embarrassment and convinced Trump to do the wrong thing. 

The documents, as characterized by Nunes and others who had actually read them, would have destroyed the Democrats, the Mueller Probe, and the liberal media. A pre-election release would have eviscerated the opposition and possibly saved the House.

The one hope America has is that House Democrats will excel at “jumping the shark” and overreach well beyond the Senate Democrats’ fraudulent attacks on Justice Kavanaugh.

Democrats’ desire for investigation not legislation will not bring down Trump. Pursuing their revenge fantasies will only prove they are not ready to rationally govern. 

November 3, 2020 will be another day of reckoning.

A Blue Wave in November? I Doubt It!

[Guest Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh Sr.]

All of the pundits seem to feel that there is going to be a blue wave this November, and the Democrats are going to trounce the Republicans. Historically, in the off year of a presidential election, the Party in control of the White House loses seats in the Congress. This is not going to happen this November. I do not have any algorithms; I also do not have any computer models. However, what these psephologists and others who perform statistical analyses of elections and polls have not recognized is there has been a paradigm shift in the electorate. The old models are just not going to work anymore. I made this observation, “The Birth of the Electorate Paradigm Shift,” in Citizen Oversight’s August 2015 posting, “…why should we, the electorate, believe any of it? It is the ‘same old – same old’ because the majority of the candidates are calcified bureaucrats … who espouse non-winning strategies.” I wrote that there’s been “…a change in the direction and tone of conversations, interviews, and stump speeches concerning many topics which are of interest to most Americans (not so much politicians – except as it relates to their electability).”

Let’s look at some numbers. In the Senate 35 seats are up for reelection (includes MN and MS special elections); 26 of those seats are held by Democrats, and they need 2 seats to take control. All 435 House seats are up for reelection; probably 215 “favor” Republicans and 200 “favor” Democrats. That means approximately 20 to 25 seats are tossups. Here is where I diverge in my projections from everyone else because I believe the days of Party voting are on the wane. I believe that the electorate is going to be influenced by the people who vote based on the Zeitgeist (German Zeit or “time” and Geist or “Ghost”, specifically, the spirit or invisible force of that period). It will be this defining spirit or mood of the people that will determine the outcome of this election. Included in this assessment are economic issues such as taxation, regulation, employment/unemployment, immigration, terrorism, and social issues. Regardless of regional differences, all will be judged according to what’s happening in Washington.

I think that the midterm elections are going to be decided by those motivated voters who have had enough of the Democratic Party and RINOs and their continued refusal to accept the fact that Donald Trump won the election. Between them and the liberal press, voters have grown tired of only hearing the negatives about the President and our country. In a recent article reported in CNS News, “Today's strong economy is the result of President Donald Trump's policies, according to a recent poll by CBS News, which also showed that nearly half of Americans believe Trump is keeping a good number of his campaign promises. …. As for the 2018 congressional elections, 34% said they would prefer to vote for a ‘Republican who is more in line with Donald Trump.’ Only 22% said they would prefer to vote for ‘a progressive of [sic] liberal Democrat.’” The same poll reported that 72% (of Democrats and Independents) want a Democratic candidate who will promote a progressive agenda; 28% want a candidate who will oppose Trump’s agenda. https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/michael-w-chapman/cbs-poll-68-credit-president-trump-current-economy

I have thought about this continued resistance to everything that is “Trump”, and I have finally concluded that the model to explain this is the Kübler-Ross model, otherwise known as the five stages of grief. The five stages are: anger, denial, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model Let’s start with the first stage: anger. It would be hard to find anyone who is a Democrat (and some Republicans) who is not angry that Trump won; I have never seen so much anger and hatred after a national election. The second stage, denial, is evident in the fact that Democrats and Republicans (especially RINOs) are trying to completely ignore him by refusing to accept the fact he is the President (and leader of the Republican Party) by trying to circumvent or prevent his programs. The third stage of bargaining is beginning to creep into the National agenda; it appears that Congress and the Democrats sort of realize he is the President and are trying – in some cases – to find common ground. The fourth stage of depression will occur if the Republicans retain control of both the Senate and the House; I am pretty sure this will put the Democrats over the edge. The last stage, acceptance, will occur at some point between 2020 and 2022. In my opinion this might be the most dangerous stage because the Democrats will regroup and try to refocus an agenda that will resonate with the electorate – and not just be an anti-Trump campaign strategy.

I believe that the voters are going to go to the polls this November with the intent of voting out the incumbents – both Republicans and Democrats. I believe that this anger will be more directed at the Senate level; the numbers (presented previously) favor Republicans coming out on top because of the number of seats up for election/reelection. I believe that the house will be less chaotic because it is a more “personal environment (i.e., smaller jurisdictions). There will be some juggling within the incumbency, but overall I believe the Republicans will come close to keeping control of their existing numbers. The 20 or so House seats that are undecided will probably add to the Republican’s majority.

Obviously, a lot can happen between now and November. I’m going to believe that the positive direction present in Trump’s performance is going to continue. The Consumer Confidence Index is increasing, job openings are increasing, and unemployment is declining. Hopefully the positive things that he is doing will be reported on by the media, and people will realize that Trump is really Making America Great Again! And Americans prefer winners who play fairly. When a campaign ad starts off something like “I’m going to show Trump!” – well, you know that person is a loser who will probably not play fair. As far as the anger against incumbents, James Madison, referring to the House of Representatives, wrote in The Federalist Papers, No. 57: “. . . [T]hey can make no law which will not have its full operation on themselves and their friends, as well as on the great mass of the society. If it be asked, what is to restrain the House of Representatives from making legal discriminations in favor of themselves and a particular class of the society? … I answer: the genius of the whole system; the nature of just and constitutional laws; and above all, the vigilant and manly spirit which actuates the people of America -- a spirit which nourishes freedom, and in return is nourished by it.” While this particular comment is applicable to both parties, the point is that the electorate is upset – and this is just one more reason. Also, according to the latest Gallup Poll, 17% approve of the way Congress is doing their job, but 79% disapprove. Blue wave – I don’t think so, but I do think that somebody’s going to pay!

Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.