2013 IN PERSPECTIVE

2013 was like any other year. We found new ways to be humane and inhumane. The frontiers of knowledge advanced both in discovery and dissemination. Creative genius existed next to odd people and events that were undeserving our attention.

Throughout these past twelve months, there were also patterns and trends that appeared or expanded into our lives. These will shape our existence in 2014 and merit further discussion.

SOURCE VERSUS SUBSTANCE
The quality of civil discourse declined along with its quantity. Rational thought, critical thinking, and reasoned engagement all declined sharply among politicians and pundits. Save for rare instances of good governance at state and local levels, hyper-partisanship reined supreme. The continued collapse of functional democracy was on vivid display in Washington, DC. To the credit of Americans, trust in Congress sank to historic lows and support for President Obama fell to his lowest ebb.

Incompetence, corruption, and deceit played their roles in the deterioration of our civic culture. However, the biggest factor was the expanding inability of people from across the political spectrum to keep an open mind when encountering opposing views. Who was saying something trumped what was being said. Even the old adage that “a stopped clock is still right twice a day” was discarded.

Shutting out differing viewpoints closes the mind to new ideas and prevents everyone from obtaining important “reality checks” for their actions. On a good day, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow provides cogent and insightful analysis. On any day, Fox’s Charles Krauthammer is the most knowledgeable and articulate pundit on an amazing range of topics. We need to return to a time when no one should have to pass a litmus test prior to pulling a fire alarm in a burning building.

CORE VERSUS FRINGE BELIEFS
Pope Francis was named Time’s “Man of the Year” for many good reasons. His most universal contribution was returning to the core message of his church – anyone seeking salvation will be granted it. Communicating and embodying the Catholic Church’s core message immediately welcomed back those wishing to return to its faith and opened a dialogue with all others desiring a caring and tolerant world. In one masterful leap, Pope Francis made his church relevant in the 21st Century.

Pope Francis’ accomplishment should be embraced by the Republican Party. A movement of faith or policy is not the sum of its parts. Its core values and beliefs inform and guide its parts. Specific issues will come and go, but its core should remain timeless. Transient passengers should not be allowed to steer the ship.

WASHINGTON VERSUS AMERICA
Our traditional concerns over government over-reach, and our dismay over its incompetence, were joined by a new and disturbing issue – fairness. “Crony capitalism” moved to the forefront of America’s psyche. The record disparity in wealth has made increasing numbers of Americans wonder if the “America Dream” has been hijacked by a well-connected oligarchy.

These fairness concerns are not about depriving productive people their well earned rewards. It is about those in power rigging the game for everyone else. Special interest tax breaks, regulatory waivers, and program funding have created an undemocratic oligarchy constructing a public trough from which they devour the spoils. This has worsened as large companies and banks continue to get away with wanton abuses, as long as they pay a small percentage of their “ill gotten” gains to complicit overseers.

One of the great missed opportunities for real change occurred when political powers did everything possible to keep the Tea Party from allying with Occupy Wall Street. Both groups arose out of a deep mistrust of established power and concern over unaccountable and incestuous elites perverting America. Such an alliance was the one true chance of a third party challenging the status quo.

In the wake of Washington dysfunction, corporate statism, and consumer exploitation, Americans are growing more restive. The latest Gallup Poll reported that seventy-two percent of Americans say big government the greatest threat to the U.S., a record high in the nearly 50-year history of this question. Unfortunately, Americans are disengaging from activism, even voting, feeling that little can be done. Opting out is a recipe for civic decline.

AMERICA VERSUS THE WORLD
America continues to suffer from not having a global strategy since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Our “war of terror” fixated on misdiagnosing symptoms in one region of the world. America’s role in the world, it competing with 200 other countries for economic well-being, and preventing slippage back to 18th Century amoral adventurism have been absent from meaningful dialogues.

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are willingly filling the void. These nations view 18th Century style power politics as their salvation from their respective internal failings. America’s missteps and miscues are being exploited to the detriment of global stability and morality. A world dominated by any country other than America will be nasty and brutish.

America remains the most parochial world power in history. Only a third of Americans currently hold passports (that’s fifteen times more than in 1970) . Only 19% of Americans travel outside the U.S. and most of them go to North American destinations. Americans consistently score near the bottom among developed nations on geographic knowledge. Much of this is based on the fact that America’s imperialism occurred within what is now its own borders. While European armies, traders, and missionaries spanned the global, Americans conquered our own continent. Except for the Spanish-American War, America’s overseas military activism was not acquisitive. Certainly, American brands and culture remain the top influencers of world consumption, but only a microscopic portion of our corporate and political leaders have actual overseas experience.

SECURITY VERSUS PRIVACY
You do not improve your chances of finding a needle in the haystack by creating more haystacks. That is the fundamental flaw in America’s counter-terrorism strategy. In the 1970’s, Americans worried about who was on President Nixon’s enemies’ list and who his minions bugged. Now we are all on our government’s enemies list and we are all bugged. This is not progress.

No amount of Orwellian intrusions will find and stop every terrorist. The odds will always remain in favor of the lone zealot or psychopath. Security forces have to get it right 100% of the time – they will never achieve this certainty. Innocent people will be killed or maimed when bad people slip through these defenses.

They key to success is to remove the roots of terrorism. Unless and until moderate Islamic leaders end the official teaching of hatred, and the perverse interpretations of the Koran, there will always be a threat. Until we establish policies and processes to recognize and treat mental illness there will always be a person using violent means to destroy lives and communities.

TECHNOLOGY VERSUS HUMANS
The irony of our age is that all the amazing advances in communications are creating as many problems as opportunities. We are all part of a technological Tower of Babel. Our common frame of reference ended years ago, to the detriment of our civic culture.

Diversity is a good thing, unless no one can effectively reach out to others. We have to keep track of friends, family, and colleagues who use different communication platforms and environments, and when they change without telling anyone. It is Apple versus Windows; iPhone versus Android; LinkedIn versus Facebook, versus countless other social networks. It is having to remember which of our friends and colleagues prefer emails to telephone calls; texting to Skype, and texts on Skype. It is about not only which people follow which television show, but whether to spend money to subscribe to cable, premium cable, Netflix, and Amazon in order to follow the latest award winning series.

Reaching key people for business or pleasure is bewildering. Platform convergence (who uses a separate camera any more?) is complicated by user divergence. The challenge for 2014 and beyond is having technology enable more than hinder our cultural advance.

100% - A Solution?

Containers can be scary. Containers are the vehicles of villainy in films like “Sum of All Fears” and “Lord of War”. In this imaginary world, terrorists fill containers with nuclear bombs, armaments, and warriors, then ship them into our unsuspecting and unguarded ports.

In the real world, this has never happened. However, drug dealers and human traffickers are able to move contraband into America with dismaying regularity.

Over 30,000 containers arrive at U.S. ports every day. We are the world’s largest economy. Our economy relies on timely arrival of material from all over the world. It also relies on seamless interactions between U.S. companies and their overseas partners. Any disruption of this vast supply chain would cripple us.

Therein lies the dilemma. How to be safe without crippling our economy?

In the wake of the 9-11 attacks, the Congress passed various laws mandating increased port security. The 9-11 Commission recommended 100 per cent inspection of containers before they reach American soil. In 2007, the Congress passed this mandate.

Now the Government Accountability Office (GAO) has issued a report stating that the 100 per cent inspection mandate might actually make our ports less safe. They assert that 100 per cent inspection is (1) very difficult to achieve, (2) hamper cooperation from our trading partners, and most importantly (3) divert resources from looking at truly at-risk containers and shippers. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08538.pdf and http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08533t.pdf

Welcome to the world of risk management.

The U.S. Customers and Border Protection Service (CBP) of the Department of Homeland Security has been highly successful in working with our trade partners to improve port security standards and practices. This includes an “alphabet soup” of organizations and programs: the World Customs Organization (WCO), the Container Security Initiative (CSI), Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT), and the framework of standards to Secure and Facilitate Global Trade (SAFE Framework).

The bottom line – not all containers, ports, or shippers are created equal. To treat every container and shipper as an equal threat would mean having inspectors devote an equal amount of time to every container in every port. In reality, there are some very safe and secure ports and many well-managed and secure shippers. 100 percent inspection would be like police breaking into every home in a city looking for a robber they suspected may be hiding in just one neighborhood.

The other reality is that CBP has to depend upon other nations’ customs units to comply. There are 173 members of the WCO and, as of July 2008, 154 of them have signed agreements to implement the SAFE Framework.

The SAFE Framework is not 100 percent inspection. It is an approach based upon state-of-the-art inspection techniques and the highest standards of risk management. Risk management is used by companies and governments the world over. It identifies, assesses, and prioritizes risk and then develops the means to reduce and eliminate that risk. Risk management is used in assuring the safety of aviation, food, pharmaceuticals, and every manufactured product. Is it perfect? Of course not. Does it assure the integrity of what we use and consume? Absolutely.

Think of your home. You can never prevent every accident. You and your family would have to wear heavy protective clothing and add guardrails and safety enclosures around everything from your stairs to your toaster. It would be prohibitively expensive, but worse, it would cripple your daily lives to the point of nothing getting done. However, you can take basic, ongoing, precautions that eliminate hazards and prevent accidents. You can also raise awareness among family members, and educate them in safe procedures, so they act in a safe manner. Splinters and paper cuts may still happen, but serious injuries will be avoided.

Port operations are the same thing. A few years ago, I worked with Dubai Customs on conducting critical risk self-assessments (CRSA) to assure port security. They were very focused as (1) they handled over 75% of all shipping in the Persian Gulf, (2) Dubai was committed to becoming the top center for world trade, and (3) they were only 100 miles from the Iranian coast. Zero tolerance of security gaps was their goal. CRSA was their approach, not 100 percent inspection. To this day, no security issues have arisen, while port operations and Dubai’s reputation as a leading trade center continue to expand.

The US needs its overseas partners to embrace the SAFE Framework to assure their port security. It depends on the hundreds of legitimate cargo companies to embrace improved inspection standards to maintain the integrity of packing and shipping containers. The GAO is correct in stating that demanding 100 per cent inspections at all foreign ports is methodologically unsound, undermines these critical partnerships, and focuses scarce resources on the wrong problem. I am a big fan of Lou Dobbs, but in this one instance, he and the 9-11 Commission are wrong. We should worry more about terrorists bringing in weapons on a chartered fishing boat from the Caribbean than in a Maersk container shipped from Sydney.

Fear & Loathing in Frankfurt

Americans need to get over their fear of foreigners.

A few weeks ago an advertisement featuring Rachael Ray wearing a scarf was pulled because of criticism that she was wearing “Islamic dress”. The advertiser claimed it wasn’t Islamic inspired, but pulled the ad anyway. The outrage from various commentators and bloggers was just not worth the hassle and potential consumer backlash.

While eating a Big Mac at the Frankfurt Airport I saw at least a half-dozen teenage girls wearing this same scarf. Yes, it is probably Islamic, as several of these girls spoke Arabic. But it was clearly a popular item as an American blond girl was wearing one on my flight from Cairo. So, the bloggers were right, the scarf has Arabic, and possibly Islamic origins. So what?

Teenage girls embrace new fashions on nearly a weekly basis. I can attest to this with my own fifteen-year-old. I imagine Rachael Ray’s handlers thought she should wear something that appealed to younger viewers. It’s called marketing and positioning of a brand.

Why are some people so afraid of an Arab scarf? What’s next – banning pita bread? Middle Eastern style has been a part of America since the early 19th Century. Victorian homes and turn-of-the-century advertising posters incorporated “arabesque” designs. Films like “Lawrence of Arabia” have captured our imagination. Since the first Gulf War, increasing numbers of Americans have served in the Middle East and brought back an interest in its culture. That is one of the reasons hummus is served at cocktail parties and why Arabic music has found its way into the songs of Sting, the Pussy Cat Dolls, and beer ads.

America is a “nation of immigrants”. We hold numerous celebrations relating to our respective countries of origin. So it is truly ironic that we are also the most parochial people to ever populate a world power. Aside from Hispanics, few Americans speak another language. Only a small fraction of our population travels abroad. Many of our high school students cannot find Canada on a map, let alone Qatar.

A certain amount of parochialism is one of our greatest attributes. Our civic culture focuses on our neighbors and our local community. It is the underpinning of our democracy and federal system. But America is part of an increasingly integrated, and interdependent, global system. Our greatest weakness is our inability to understand, cope, and leverage this phenomenon. This more severe parochialism has fostered a growing fear of foreigners and their cultures.

I am not advocating we give up our grounding in our communities in order to know the leaders of nations we may never visit. I am advocating that we realize that most of the world is a safe place filled with people who, while speaking a different language, worshipping a different deity, and wearing different cloths, are fundamentally like us. They love their families, they work hard, and they are focused on their own villages and communities.

Anyone traveling outside the US quickly realizes that our country is rarely on the minds of people around the world. It is rarely mentioned in major national and regional news media. That is not something to be feared, but is something to factor into the way we view the world. What is happening around the globe is not always about us. It is about maintaining civility and a level of liberty and security that allows people to freely interact and for commerce to be conducted.

One of the sad legacies of the Bush era is their inspiring Americans to be more fearful of the world. I remember in February 2003 when the Administration wanted Americans to cower in our homes surrounded by duct tape and plastic sheets. At that time my family and I were enjoying a cruise on the Nile. We felt safer there than we do walking near the U.S. Capitol.

Fear has become an integral part of politics in America. Questionable candidates have been elected and dubious laws have been passed in the name of protecting us from an array of bogeymen. Yes, there are psychotic despots who are doing terrible things to their countrymen, and there are religious nut-jobs who like to kill at random. There are ways to deal with this dangerous minority. Making Americans afraid of other cultures and assailing globalization is not how we should proceed.