Beware the RINOgator

Also published on Newsmax.  #TRUMPING  #RINOGATOR

A very dangerous species is loose in Washington, DC.  If it’s not eradicated it will bring ruin to Trump’s Administration and the nation.

RINOgator is a subspecies of fake Republicans (as in Republican In Name Only) that lives in the swamp of our nation’s Capital.   The swamp is its natural habitat, filled with conflicts of interest, incestuous relationships, avoidance of accountability, hiding documents and information from the public; waste, fraud, and abuse. 

RINOgators’ role in life is to expand the swamp and to destroy anyone who tries to drain it. Any reduction in the swamp reduces their numbers and threatens the species.

RINOgators eat tax dollars and absorb energy from reform minded humans. They have insatiable appetites and are never full.  There is always one more meal to eat.

RINOgators are highly territorial.  They relentlessly defend their turf among Congressional Committees and special interests. It is far more important to maintain their turf than for anything to be accomplished.

RINOgators live in close-knit family units.  One generation promotes the next through education, internships, sinecures, and contracts.  There is constant intermingling and intermarriage with other RINOgator family units. 

RINOgators can also be highly incestuous. They will give awards, place media stories, hire, and promote family members at every opportunity.  Multi-generational RINOgator family units hold more territory and become impervious to elections.

RINOgators may migrate to corporate, academic, and media positions, to promote the swamp, but will always return to their native swamp.

RINOgators are pernicious.  They use their knowledge of the swamp to convince their prey that they are necessary.  Their prey willingly appoints them to office, listens to their advice, and invites them into their inner circles. Like cowbirds, RINOgators lay their eggs in the nests of reformers, setting the stage for their young to devour the souls of competing species.

RINOgators have a distinct call, which is heard on cable news, in policy forums, and reported in the mainstream media.  Its call is for maintaining the status quo, no matter what.  Lesser calls are for “further study”, new programs, new legislation, and more funding.  Squawks of alarm are heard whenever reformers call for accountability, transparency, “running government like a business”, “doing more with less”, privatization, and cutbacks.  Squawks are usually accompanied by assertions of “we are unique”, “it cannot be done”, and various lies about how the process “actually” works.

RINOgators have an array of formidable defenses.  Their most effective is delay. Their other defense mechanisms include the ability to erase memory, dismiss facts, and divert attention so reformers pursue only irrelevant or tactical issues.

RINOgators are chameleons.  They adopt the rhetoric of their enemies to better blend in until the right moment to strike. 

The Trump era has become a major threat to the RINOgators and their swamp.  The RINOgators did not see Trump as a threat until he had entered their territory. 

That is why the RINOgators have forged elaborate family groupings, nesting on Capitol Hill, to thwart Trump initiatives.  RINOgators chose not to attack the past foibles of Obama and Hillary.  They think it is better having Democrats on the offense against Trump instead of on the defense.

RINOgators have the innate ability to rebound after being stunned.  That is why, after being surprised by Trump winning the nomination, they insinuated themselves into Trump’s transition planning, transition team, and Administration.  Legions of RINOgators wrote Trump Transition briefing books and developed personnel “vetting” processes that slowed the staffing of Trump’s Administration to a crawl. They adjusted selection criteria to favor swamp preservationists and surrounded incoming Trump Executives with them, instead of swamp drainers.

RINOgator eradication efforts have been sporadic and only partially successful.  The main barrier to eradication is convincing people RINOgators exist. Their chameleon defenses allow them to avoid detection.  RINOgators and their allies have the unique talent of reflecting problems and disappointments back onto Trump.  This reflective surface is a key part of the RINOgator’s outer armor.

Thankfully, RINOgators have weaknesses.  They are susceptible to sunshine when light is shown on their true selves.  They are too smug, leading them to make wrong assumptions about the American people.

The RINOgator eradication program must begin with Americans unmasking the species and ripping away its reflective surfaces.  RINOgators are especially vulnerable during primaries. 

Trump and the nation must track down and wipe-out the RINOgator, before it is too late.  This is critical to draining the swamp.

[Scot Faulkner helps private corporations and governments save billions of dollars by flattening organizations; achieving dramatic and sustainable cost reductions while improving operational and service excellence. He served as the Chief Administrative Officer of the U.S. House of Representatives.  He also served on the White House Staff, and in Executive Appointments, during the Reagan Administration.]

TRUMPING GOVERNMENT

[Also published at http://www.newsmax.com/ScotFaulkner/trump-federal-government-presidency/2016/11/24/id/760573/ ] #TRUMPING #DRAINTHESWAMP

President-Elect Trump can revolutionize governing as he revolutionized campaigning.

Trump is uniquely positioned as the first nonmilitary, nongovernment, person to ever be elected President.  His mandate for change will overwhelm those wanting an ever expanding and dysfunctional government to prevail. 

The Washington Establishment defends the status quo by asserting: “we have always done it this way”; “you can never run government like a business”; “we are unique”; “we have already cut what can be cut”, and “cutting anything will harm Americans”.

Trump is already doing things his way, breaking new ground as he goes.  The media and the Establishment were against Trump since he announced his candidacy and were consistently wrong about everything relating to Trump and the 2016 elections.  They are now foolishly attempting to second guess Trump, hold him to some arbitrary transition schedule, and giving him unsolicited advice.

These unrelenting, but always wrong, voices ignore that President-Elect Ronald Reagan named his core cabinet on or after December 10, 1980, thirty-six days past his landslide election.  They also refuse to mention that none of Trump’s appointments can be confirmed until the new 115^th Congress convenes on January 3, 2017. The first Senate confirmation hearings cannot take place until that first day of the new Congress.  Trump can take his time and get things right from the start.

Trump is crafting his own way of governing.  His only requirement is to seamlessly transition to power.  Think of a relay race where one runner is completing their segment while the other is beginning theirs.  Ideally, both runners achieve stride for stride coordination until one passes the baton to the other.  America’s civic culture is tested and proven strong every time this peaceful hand-off occurs between opposing parties.

Once the “baton is in hand” President Trump will end the Obama era.  Ronald Reagan took time, immediately after his Inaugural Address, to sign Executive Orders ending the Carter era. Trump should move this decisively.

Realigning and mobilizing the Executive Branch to achieve his top priorities will be the first test of Trump’s ability to lead. 

Trump must instill a “sense of urgency”. November 8 was a massive Taser blast to the heart of the Washington Establishment.  They remain stunned, dazed, and confused.  Trump must move swiftly to achieve his goals before the Establishment awakes. 

Revolution’s worst enemy is delay.  Trump is an intuitive thinker and doer. He must act aggressively on his instincts and not let over analysis paralyze his cause.

The federal government is ridiculously huge.  Its size and growth are unnecessary.  In its first 129 years, America became a world power, the leader in technology innovation, and an industrial juggernaut, with only six Cabinet Departments.  All Cabinet Departments, except Treasury, fit into the Old Executive Office Building until World War I.  The door knobs in the building still display the Departmental seals.

Rethinking the role of government can be Trump’s greatest contribution to America.  Private initiative makes America great, so government should only exist when an overwhelmingly compelling case can be made.  Even then, incentives and sanctions through regulation, taxes, or fees, should be exhausted before a new government program is created.  Except for Coolidge and Reagan to varying degrees, no incoming President has ever conducted such a fundamental review.

Much of what sent America over the fiscal cliff were the actions of President Lyndon Baines Johnson in the 1960s. LBJ cynically established the modern welfare state to entrap large swathes of the electorate in an ever expanding federal leviathan. LBJ’s “great society” programs drove millions into voting for Democrats and drove America trillions into debt.

Trump knows government growth can be reversed. Personnel and costs can be dramatically cut.  Agencies can be abolished, like the Civil Aeronautics Board.

Under President Reagan, the General Services Administration invoked a hiring freeze and radical reorganization that reduced employment from 34,000 to 12,000 in three years.  Costs plummeted while the quality and responsiveness of services skyrocketed.  Under Speaker Gingrich, all non-parliamentary and non-security operations were consolidated within a new Chief Administrative Officer. Aggressive outsourcing and business based operations cut employment in half.  Once again, costs plummeted while quality and responsiveness of services skyrocketed.

As President Trump reshapes the Federal Government he needs to take to heart the immortal words of two of America’s most successful Presidents.  Calvin Coolidge directed his appointees to “Trim wherever you can”.  Ronald Reagan had a sign on his desk that inspired his team, “It CAN be done".

TRUMPING WASHINGTON

[Published at http://www.newsmax.com/ScotFaulkner/reagan/2016/11/14/id/758756/ ]

The Washington Establishment is betting on Trump faltering.  Trump can triumph by not letting any of them subvert from within.

The well proven maxim, people equals policy, should be Trump’s driving force.  Trump can gain inspiration and insight from Reagan’s earlier victory over the Establishment.  These lessons can assure Trump’s tenure achieves historic change.

The Reagan Revolution almost did not occur because the Republican Establishment did everything it could to co-opt it.  Reagan’s transition planning team was hijacked by technocrats who had no understanding or desire for revolution.  Legions of moderate Republicans, who fought Goldwater in the 1960s and Reagan in the 1970s, poured into Reagan’s transition teams in the weeks following the 1980 election.  Former Ford appointees, derisively called “retreads”, filled the short lists for government executive positions.

It took the aggressive intervention of Reagan’s Kitchen Cabinet to clean house and get his revolution back on track.  Reagan’s closest friends, including Joe Coors and Bill Wilson, arrived in Washington, DC in early December 1980 and personally took charge of the transition.  Their clarity of purpose and unwavering devotion to Reagan and his agenda, assured that Americans got the change they so clearly wanted.

President-Elect Trump has not waited until early December.  Trump’s Veterans’ Day Transition realignment was bold and effective. His top associates, family members, and key operatives are now the rocket boosters to propel the Trump Administration into a sustainable orbit.

There is one advantage that Trump in 2016 has over Reagan in 1980 - the Washington Republican Establishment openly and vehemently opposed Trump throughout his campaign.  The usual post-nomination unity was hindered by the “never Trump” forces.  Many anti-Trump Republicans openly boasted about voting against him in countless social media posts on Election Day. 

This disloyalty and outright sabotage must be remembered.  It clears the field for new blood to serve Trump.  It is far easier to “drain the swamp” when the K Street crocodiles have exposed themselves. 

Those who knifed Trump in the back are waiting for the day he “comes to his senses” and sells out his “Deplorables”.  Many observers are smugly musing that Trump will have to scale back his revolution and make peace with the Establishment.  Otherwise, they declare, Trump will not have enough capable people to run the Executive Branch. 

Trump can once again prove his detractors fools.  The private sector has a vast array of corporate change agents. These top executives have successfully run enterprises larger than most federal agencies.  Those who profitably navigated the post-2008 economic collapse are “battle” seasoned and proven innovators.  Those who remained profitable in the face of global competition have mastered the upheavals of the 21^st Century.  Many will heed Trump’s call to join his crusade to Make America Great Again.

Trump can tap Republican governors who have turned around the governments and economies of their states.  Their dramatic successes have earned them re-election or assured a Republican succeeded them.

The Republican governors were successful because they unflinchingly fulfilled their campaign pledges, and kept their focus on bettering the economic wellbeing of their citizens. They were also successful because they hired highly effective lieutenants to run their state agencies.   These successful change agents bring a record of vanquishing public sector inertia.  They can be paired with private sector leaders to become an unbeatable team for “Trumping” the Federal Government.

Many rallied to Trump within weeks of his announcing his candidacy.  These included policy experts and strategic thinkers who helped in the Reagan and Gingrich revolutions.  Reagan alumni stood firm with Trump by courageously endorsing him while enduring ostracism from the Washington “powers that be”.  Hundreds of retired military and national security leaders, many of whom helped win the Cold War, stepped forward to offer Trump timely and critical support.

Trump’s “Deplorables” are counting on him winning for them and America.

TRUMPING THE ESTABLISHMENT

[Also published in http://www.newsmax.com/ScotFaulkner/lobbyist-politicians/2016/08/31/id/746090/]

The Washington Establishment has a visceral hatred for Trump because he promises to put them out of business.

Why does the Washington Establishment hate Donald Trump? It is not because of his positions on immigration or trade.  Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot advocated similar stands in 1992 and they did not generate the obsessive hatred being displayed in 2016.

Trump has declared war on the Establishment itself.  In his June 16, 2015 Presidential announcement Trump asserted:

“So I’ve watched the politicians. I’ve dealt with them all my life…They will never make America great again. They don’t even have a chance. They’re controlled fully by the lobbyists, by the donors, and by the special interests…it’s destroying our country. We have to stop, and it has to stop now.”

The Washington Establishment sees Trump as serious about them being the primary impediment to making America “great again”.  Trump sees the Establishment as lining their pockets, and their friends’ pockets, as beneficiaries of the status quo.  As long as nothing changes, the Establishment will have their mansions, limousines, VIP tables, and ego trips.

There is much at stake.

Think of Washington, DC as a mass of “cookie jars” each containing delicious treats.  There are those who control the cookie jars, those who want the cookie jars, and those who can get the cookie jars.  Officially, these treats are distributed based on legislative mandates, open competition, and documented needs.  In fact, the treats are almost always handed out to friends, and friends of friends.  Friends can be purchased.  It is Washington, D.C.’s “golden rule” – those with the gold rule.

Welcome to “crony capitalism”.  Someone knowing someone who can hand out favors has been around since the first tribes shared the first harvest.  The term “lobbyist” came from favor seekers hanging out in the lobby of Washington, DC’s Willard Hotel during the Grant Administration in the 1870s.  In 1905, George Washington Plunkett, a ward boss in the Tammany Hall political machine, coined what could be the motto of Washington, D.C. – “What is the Constitution among friends?”

Today, things have gotten way out of hand.  Spending for Washington lobbyists has tripled since 1998 to over $3.22 billion a year.  $24 million is spent for lobbyists each day Congress is in session. 

Campaign fundraising is another dimension of how the Establishment stays in power.  Over $750 million has been raised for House races and $520 million for Senate races this election cycle. Leaders of Political Action Committees (PACs), and individual bundlers who raise funds, dominate this ultimate game of “pay for play”.

Those brokering power become gatekeepers for funding and favors throughout the Federal Government. This power comes from a truism overlooked by everyone in the media – all discretionary federal money is earmarked.  The popular myth is that earmarks vanished once the Republicans banned them when they returned to power in 2011.  They only banned legislative earmarks, and there are still ways to work around that system.  The President, and his appointees, earmark funds as standard operating procedure.  Even career bureaucrats play favorites. 

Favorites can be based on institutional, Administration, and ideological biases.  Favoritism can also go to the highest bidder.  This is federal money flowing out the door as grants, programs, contracts, buildings, leases, and employment.  Other “treats” to be dispensed include regulatory relief, tax waivers, and subsidies. Favoritism is rarely purchased with money directly changing hands, that kind of corruption occurs more in state and local government.  Washington level corruption is true “quid pro quo”.

The Washington Establishment swaps favors more insidiously.  How many times does a military officer get a major position with a defense contractor years after he favored them with a multi-million dollar contract?  A Reagan aide granted a building height waiver near the White House and quadrupled his salary when hired by the developer.  Grant and contract officers obtain slots at prestigious colleges and prep schools for their children for making the “right” choices or being a little lax on oversight.  Bush era National Park officials refused to prosecute the destruction of park land in exchange for Redskins tickets.  Everyone has their price, save for those true public servants.

Trump promises to smash the cookie jars and end the reign of the Establishment. 

Normal Americans are rallying around Trump.  They are enraged at the lies and duplicity of those in power.  Many see a reason to vote for the first time since Reagan. They want November 8, 2016 to be America’s “Bastille Day” marking the end of Washington, DC’s arrogant and unaccountable ruling class.

Billions of dollars are at stake.  Perks, prestige, and power are at stake.  The future of representative government is at stake. Is it any wonder that the Establishment is doing everything and anything to stop Trump?

[Scot Faulkner served as the first Chief Administrative Officer of the U.S, House of Representatives and on Reagan’s White House Staff.  He advises global corporations and governments on strategic change and leadership.]

TRUMPING THE BUDGET

[Published in http://www.newsmax.com/ScotFaulkner/budget-congress-cronies-omb/2016/08/23/id/744737/ ]

It is time for Trump to do what he does best – expose how the Washington, DC Establishment lies its way to expanding government and helping its cronies.

Donald Trump has an historic opportunity to reframe and reset the budget battles that have plagued Washington, DC for years.

Members of Congress, when they return after their longest summer break in over fifty years, will be teetering on a chasm of their own making.  They will have only seventeen legislative days to pass twelve Appropriation bills.  Only a handful cleared the House prior to its long recess and none were considered in the Senate.  This guarantees much “sound and fury” ending in an Omnibus Appropriations bill, with several continuing resolutions to avoid a government shutdown.

Posturing by the Congress, the White House, candidates, and the media will reach fever pitch around the time of the first Presidential Debate on September 26.

Trump’s role in defusing this latest fiscal bomb can take several forms.

First, reveal how $2.405 trillion is just laying around doing nothing. 

Since President Obama took office, $914.8 billion in unexpended, unobligated, funds have piled up across the federal government. Obama never conducted the “budget sweeps” done by all his predecessors. The details are reported under “Assets and Balance Sheets” on page ten of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) budget. 

Another $1.028 trillion remains unexpended among general accounts and $461 billion remains unspent in trust funds.  While these funds are technically obligated, the fact that they have languished for years raises questions about their use and their management.

Second, reveal the red herring of entitlements.  Everyone knows that the only way to truly stop massive federal spending and debt is to reform entitlements.  The trap is that the required radical reform will not happen anytime soon.  It is like asking an overweight “couch potato” to suddenly jump up and win the Olympics’ Marathon.  No one in Congress, the Executive Branch, or the multitude of stakeholders is ready or willing to make entitlement reform happen.

The alternative is to prepare for tackling entitlements by first working on those budget issues that are long overdue.  This should appeal to anyone not lining their, and their cronies, pockets with federal favors.

The first move is slamming the door shut on filling federal vacancies.  This would cut $350 billion a year in personnel costs. This freeze would take advantage of Executive Branch attrition of 60,000+ employees a year through retirements and voluntary departures. Each agency head could submit waivers to OMB for those jobs they consider essential for their missions.

Not every retired government worker needs to be replaced. In fact, the Defense Department has already begun to leverage selective hiring freezes for a five year “delayering” initiative to eliminate 1,260 positions and save $1.9 billion over five years.  Even under Obama, officials admit not every layer of management (up to 23 layers in some agencies) is needed. Just think how much they could save if they were sincere.

The second way to immediate fiscal sanity is to cut $650 billion in government waste.  Every year, the General Accountability Office (GAO) and 73 Inspector General Offices find over $650 billion in ongoing waste. This waste is documented in 768 GAO reports containing hundreds of recommendations for operational improvement, and 8,760 audits and investigations conducted by the 73 Inspector General Offices among the Cabinet departments and independent agencies of the Executive Branch. 

That translates into $6.5 trillion in possible spending cuts or cost avoidance, over the next ten years, without harming one legitimate beneficiary of government services. Unfortunately, these findings and recommendations are regularly ignored by the Washington Establishment.

Congress, the Executive Branch, and the media are ignoring 9,528 ways to cut government waste every year.

Trump can make the professionals at the GAO and Inspector General offices “rock stars”.  He can look into the camera and say, “No matter how liberal or how conservative you are – you want the government to stop wasting your money.” 

These could be the first steps in shaping Trump’s management revolution as President. They are all bi-partisan issues.  Trump can then build upon these successes to solve the more divisive issue of entitlement reform.

Exposing the truth, and saving billions of dollars, “what do you have to lose?”

Find the Zebra

[Guest Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh Sr.]

Today I am going to write a little bit of a “fringe” blog because of the continued political machinations of the Establishment (including Cruz and Kasich). Right now the entire political arena on the Republican side of the house is being run by the Establishment as the same old same old. Consider this: “The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. The availability heuristic operates on the notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative solutions which are not as readily recalled. Subsequently, under the availability heuristic, people tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic It just seems that everybody has come to believe the Establishment that they know best and everybody should step aside and let the coronation of their candidate occur. So let’s look at some of the problems with this.

 

For one thing there is a vast majority of the electorate that feel disenfranchised; it’s almost as if they should not have even bothered to vote. Second, the entire Establishment is looking for ways to sabotage Trump – even if he wins the number of delegates necessary to be nominated in the first round. Third, if all else fails, let’s talk about changes to the rules, candidate substitution – including some people who may not have even run for the office this election cycle – whatever. Maybe the Establishment is talking about these things is to make Trump voters give up voting for him because they feel their votes won't count anyway (frustration, intimidation).

 

Another thing: there have been a number of lawsuits filed against Cruz because of his citizenship: http://excessofdemocracy.com/blog/2016/2/status-of-pending-natural-born-citizen-challenges-and-litigation-in-2016-presidential-election The question seems to turn on what it means to be a “natural born citizen.” So let’s look at what the Qualifications for the Office of President are: “Age and Citizenship requirements - US Constitution, Article II, Section 1:  No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States. http://www.presidentsusa.net/qualifications.html

 

The thing that I find curious – and I’m not a constitutional scholar – is that The Constitution never defines who is eligible to run for the office of president – only who “shall be eligible to the office of President!” If you look at of the lawsuits that have been filed, most have failed procedurally. It seems to me this will only be decided after the election – assuming Cruz wins – and whether he is eligible to assume the office – if he wins it!.

 

My conclusion: There is something very wrong with the way we select and fund our candidates. I think the 2016 primary experience should cause us to question the process: I think if nothing else Trump has exposed the political arena and all of its corruptness. Americans should be disgusted that their voting is irrelevant; the wealthy and powerful will decide who the candidate is – regardless of our voting preference. This has become especially clear since the Citizens United lawsuit opened the way for unlimited campaign contributions to Establishment candidates.

 

I have a couple of suggestions for what Mr. Trump needs to do. First, he has got to get ahead of everything and lead – he is leading from behind right now and reacting to the Establishment and Main Street stimuli. He should adapt his delivery. In direct marketing there is a rule called the 40/40/20 Rule: 40% audience, 40% offer, 20% Creative. Others have suggested modifications by splitting the percentage and adding Action. Another proposal was divided across four categories:

“We propose what we'll call the "4-Way Split Rule:" 25 percent audience, 25 percent offer, 25 percent creative, 25 percent technology.” http://www.imediaconnection.com/articles/ported-articles/red-dot-articles/2000/oct/rewriting-dm-rules-for-the-web/ He must repackage his presentation and make Cruz and Kasich irrelevant because he has got the winning message – not only for the electorate, but also for the electors at the Republican Convention. He has got to get out the vote – have a superior ground game. I believe that this election cycle will produce more votes cast than any previous election – both in number and in percentage of registered voters.

 

Finally, medical professionals are taught as students that when presented with symptoms, it’s best to pursue the most likely cause of those symptoms; that is what made the TV series “House” very popular: they would always go look for the bizarre! In medical terminology this is called a zebra: “Zebra is the American medical slang for arriving at an exotic medical diagnosis when a more commonplace explanation is more likely. It is shorthand for the aphorism coined in the late 1940s by Dr. Theodore Woodward, professor at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, who instructed his medical interns: ‘When you hear hoof beats, think of horses not zebras.’” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zebra_%28medicine%29 I think that right now Trump and his team are thinking horses (Establishment) and not zebras (outside of the box solutions)!

 

For example, I would propose that Trump begin floating names for the Office of Vice President. Talk about something that might cause Establishment people to jump out of a window – well, this might do it! Maybe he could open the door to selecting Cruz or Kasich. Probably very impractical, but it would perhaps demonstrate a feeling of forgiveness and open-mindedness. Also, I would drop names (and I’m sure his team has already begun developing his A-List) of somebody who might be female (maybe a Latino like Susana Martinez (NM)). Once again, this is designed to allow him to get ahead of the game – redirect the media thinking and the Establishment – these people would not necessarily be his candidates.

 

There should be two rules which govern his end game on the way to the convention: “…when you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” Sherlock Holmes, “The Adventure of the Blanched Soldier,” Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. Finally, keep it simple: “Occam's (or Ockham's) razor is a principle attributed to the 14th century logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham….The most useful statement of the principle for scientists is "when you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better."  http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/General/occam.html I hope that he finds the zebra!

____________________________________

Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Electorate: Knock! Knock! Establishment: Who’s there?

[Guest Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh Sr.]

I would have to say that the title of this blog is what this election cycle is all about. It seems that, “we the people” want to have a voice in who the Republican nominee is; but the Establishment does not want to hear what we have to say. As much as I hate to say it, it appears that the Establishment might win anyway. Regardless of who wins the caucus and primaries, the Establishment candidate’s name may be announced at the convention – even though Republicans may lose the election to the Democratic candidate.

 

After reviewing the statistics on Mr. Trump’s town hall meeting versus the network coverage of the latest debate, I would have to question how much support he may have in a general election. After all, I do not believe that he has been endorsed by any member of Congress yet (this may be a good thing!). Another point concerns just how large the Republican Party is relative to the entire electorate: about one third. The Democratic base is slightly larger, perhaps at 40%. Even if these numbers are not totally correct, you can get the point that a large number of independent voters who are Millennial, Hispanics and other minorities – are not exactly big fans of the Republican Party. Right now, Mr. Trump has a sizable lead over his next closest competitors, Mr. Cruz and Mr. Rubio (Real Clear Politics). When is the light bulb going to go on?

 

The fact of the matter is that the Party and other candidates besides Mr. Trump do not seem to be very well-liked. Because of the large number of candidates now, it does not appear that the Party is directly supporting anyone – except, of course, in a destructive way, Mr. Trump. That seems to be the primary goal: destroy Trump, and then we’ll name an heir apparent. Of course there is always the hope that if Trump wins a few of these primaries, the Republican career politicians (who care more about their careers than the country) will come running to his side to endorse him. One could only hope. But even if that happens, it may be too late for the Republicans to convince a majority of the electorate – which will include conservatives and other members of the Republican base who have been insulted throughout this election cycle – to even give the Democratic candidate a real challenge. There are those who believe that Mr. Trump will destroy the image of the Republican Party; what image? It’s hard to believe that the image could get worse; but if all of the candidates and the Establishment keep talking trash and shredding each other, who could blame the voters for not selecting anybody within the Republican Party?

 

The voters want someone to change the way Republicans and Democrats do business in Washington, DC. The Republicans said that they needed the House to stop Obama. When that didn’t work, they said they needed the Senate – and they got it. Finally, now that they have both the House and Senate, they are crying to the public that they need to control the White House, also. But in the meantime, they have exhibited no leadership and have broken most of their promises. They have squandered their opportunities and created their own political morass. Part of Mr. Trump’s success stems from the fact that he has ignored the Establishment, the main street media – practically everybody – while addressing some of the main factors that are causing frustration and angst in the electorate: immigration, terrorism, corruption and cronyism, a weak foreign policy, shredding the Constitution of the U. S., and so forth.

 

It is very interesting to look at the polls in Real Clear Politics. Right now, Trump and Clinton are barely even within the margin of error. Clinton versus Cruz is pretty even, also within the margin. Overall, Rubio is possibly ahead of Clinton – also within the margin of error. So, as I have said before, I believe the White House belongs to the Republicans – as long as they don’t completely bungle the operation – which it appears they are in the process of doing. Sanders, the Democratic candidate, actually edges Cruz and Trump – but Rubio actually beats Sanders! So at first blush it looks as if Rubio would be the best Republican nominee. So the question is: how does Rubio poll best nationally while losing (potentially) some of the primaries? How do you discount the data that Trump may win the primaries, but that he may lose nationally to both Democratic frontrunners?

 

The Republican Establishment has severely disappointed their supporters; they just don’t get it. It is this Establishment that has created the distrust, anger, feelings of abandonment – and actually has created Donald Trump. The more the Establishment complains about and plots the destruction of Trump (whom the Republican electorate supports), the stronger he gets. If they would only recognize the opportunity they have to capture the White House, coalesce behind him, and support him, the greater the chances are that the entire electorate would select him as the next President. (For example, an availability heuristic could be used to flood the electorate with strong, positive communication about the Republican candidate – including Trump.) 

 

Let me close with a fanciful scenario to this unpredictable election season. Remember, this is just something to “noodle” on while the primaries sort themselves out. What if Hillary Clinton is prosecuted – or faces legal hurdles that are so insurmountable that it cripples her run for the Presidency? In other words Bernie Sanders becomes front runner. Then, let’s assume that Trump prevails in the primaries, and the Republican Establishment resigns itself to that result. Or, the Republican Establishment decides to torpedo Mr. Trump (somehow, maybe brokered convention?), and selects Rubio as the nominee – after all, right now he has the best chance of beating either Democratic candidate. And then, just for the fun of it, let’s say that the Democratic Party convinces Joe Biden to enter the race because they perceive a loss of the White House. Trump or Rubio vs. Clinton or Sanders? And along comes Joe. Knock! Knock! Who’s there?

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Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Please, Republicans: Stop It!

[Guest Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh Sr.]

From NRSC Senior Staff operative, Ward Baker, “Observations on Donald Trump and 2016:

 “The place is Cleveland, Ohio. The date is July 21, 2016 and Donald Trump has just accepted the nomination of the Republican Party for President of the United States.” Wow! https://www.washingtonpost.com/apps/g/page/politics/memo-on-donald-trump-from-ward-baker-to-nrsc-senior-staff/1898/

In my mind, in his memorandum of September 22, 2015, Mr. Baker is the first person as a senior Republican Party operative to actually present an intelligent analysis on how to win the presidential election. Even though this memorandum presents recommendations for potential Senate candidates, it should have been addressed to the Republican Party in general. Mr. Baker has captured the essence of what this election is all about: “…this time it is harder to predict an outcome because of the volatility of the electorate. Trump has risen because voters see him as authentic, independent, firm,--- and believe he can’t be bought.” I have written a couple of other CitizenOversight postings about this topic before; I still believe that there has been a paradigm shift in the electorate in this election cycle.

Mr. Baker makes several recommendations for other Republican office seekers if Mr. Trump is the nominee. I found this to be especially important because it is how all of the presidential candidates should be conducting themselves. If the other presidential candidates keep making insulting, derogatory comments about each other, no Republican nominee will win; the electorate will be poisoned by their own negativity. After all, who wants to vote for a nominee whose own party won’t support him? Here are some of the more salient points of Mr. Baker’s memo: “People talk about problems, not issues. So, focus on problems and not issues and offer your solutions. Avoid Washington-speak (legislation, bills, insider talk) in favor of Main Street common sense …. Understand the Changing Environment and Recalibrate Now. The Trump phenomenon exists because Washington politicians promise change, but don’t deliver. Your job is to deliver.”

Another excellent observation made by Mr. Baker: “Trump Can Hit the Right Chord. We may not like it, but Trump has connected with voters on issues like trade with China and America’s broken borders.” How about this one for a very common sense observation: “Trump Rises Because People Understand Him…. Don’t insult key voter cohorts by ignoring that America has significant problems and that Trump is offering some basic solutions. Understand the populist points that Trump makes and ride that wave.” I call this one, “Don't throw the baby (the winning strategy) out with the bathwater (Mr. Trump)”! The Establishment has become so fixated on denying Mr. Trump the nomination that they’ve lost sight of the primary mission: win the White House!

Continuing, it just keeps getting better! How about this for a winning strategy: “We Can’t Afford to Depress the GOP Vote. Spending full-time criticizing our own nominee will ensure that the GOP vote is depressed. That will only serve to topple GOP candidates at every level.” And one final nugget of wisdom: “Covering the Trump Bet. Conventional wisdom has counted Trump out on several occasions. But, Trump continues to rise and the criticisms seem to make him stronger. Trump has been gaining Democratic adherents and he’s solidifying GOP cohorts who feel they have been totally ignored by the Washington Ruling Class. If the environment aligns properly, Trump could win. It’s not a bet most would place now, but it could happen.”

We are now at the end of a two term Democratic administration. I’m not going to say anything about that, but I will say that Mr. Trump has changed the campaigning landscape in several ways. For one thing he refuses to be intimidated by the media, Democratic Party – even his fellow candidates and the entire dissenting Republican Party. Secondly, he has exposed many of his running mates to be the RINO cowards they are. Say what you will, but Mr. Trump is a leader – and that’s what the country needs now. Third, the party has historically chosen the candidate; but this cycle it appears that voters will have more of a say in who the candidate is.

The GOP establishment is desperate and doing everything they can to derail him. Once again they are proving that they are the masters of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. There are so many divisions within the electorate; there are so many signals that change is coming; there are so many turf wars; and most important – there is no leadership within the party to unite and back one candidate. Say what you will, but Mr. Trump sees the big picture – and reacts to it – like a leader should – even though it is politically incorrect and perhaps unpopular.

It will be interesting to see whether or not Mr. Trump decides to run as a third-party candidate. I believe that he has held up his end of the bargain; and I believe that the Republican Party – and his fellow candidates – have continued to disparage, belittle, and criticize him – thereby opening the way for him to run without violating his agreement. In a way – although it would hand the presidency to the Democrats – it might cause the existent Republican Party to become a rump organization – thereby allowing a true, moderately conservative political party to become the Phoenix that will be successful in the next presidential election. I hope that the Republican establishment realizes this could be a possibility and quits the campaign to stop his candidacy; they need to listen to the people, get behind him, quit carping, and move on with a strategy to capture the White House.

Another candidate may overtake Mr. Trump or he may lose on his own. However, he now leads in all of the primaries (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) The GOP establishment is going to be at a crossroads in the very near future: what do we do if Mr. Trump wins all of the primaries? It could happen – and if it does, they should be focusing on getting voters into the booths to pull the lever for Mr. Trump as the Republican nominee. I hope that somebody like Mr. Baker gets a larger voice in the final decision!

Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.