Why Donald Trump Is Our Nation’s Hope

[Guest Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh Sr.]

With the Republican Convention looming, I hope that the handful of people that cannot seem to accept the reality that Trump won the nomination fairly will embrace him. “Many say, like him or not, Trump won and efforts to dump him would be crushed and would devastate the GOP. According to The Associated Press, Trump has 1,542 delegates, including 1,447 required by party rules to back his nomination, well above the 1,237 needed for victory.” http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GOP_2016_TRUMPS_PARTY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT  He is the (presumptive) Republican nominee – if you believe the millions of voters who voted for him in the primaries. I hope that these maverick dissidents realize that a vote for Trump is a vote to save the nation; any other alternative is to return a Democrat to the White House. It is hard enough to have to tolerate the MSM which is doing everything to discredit Trump and many of the other Republican candidates. We do not have a fair and balanced approach to our reporting media any longer. Reading some blogger’s comments bolstered my confidence that the electorate is catching on. For example, “Polls like this mean nothing, all slanted by the left trying to push the attention away from all the Clinton money scandals.” How about: “Well when almost all media outlets are bad mouthing and highlighting his negatives what do you expect? Can we hear all of Hillary's lies, scandals, and hypocrisy? Trump's issues are repeated 100 times while Clinton's mentioned briefly at best.”

I am incredulous that there are still those who think replacing Trump at the convention – using whatever tactic they can including changing the rules – and putting somebody else in his place is a viable solution. To say this is just plain stupid. I guess that desperate people do desperate things. The Republicans need to unite – now, not later – if they are to have any hope of winning the White House. Further, any attempt to replace him would be an unmitigated disaster. “‘It's a fantasy, it won't happen,’ said Morton Blackwell, a Republican National Committee member from Virginia who initially backed Cruz.” Another voice of reason: “‘We have a responsibility to respect our democracy, and that means we accept the outcome of the vote,’ said Rep. Austin Scott, R-Ga., who supported the presidential bid of Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.” (Ibid) Further, there is no guarantee that their replacement would fare any better (still dealing with a Republican, you know); and worse yet, besides losing the election, they would definitely lose millions of voters – many of whom stood in line for hours to vote for Trump – and therefore bring about the ultimate demise of the Republican Party. I think that the Establishment members who are pushing to dump Trump have overlooked the fact that they can be replaced, too. Our career politicians have been silent or otherwise ignored their elected responsibilities as legislators to be a check and balance on the Executive Branch – and now they want us to listen to them? Ask yourself: what have these dissenters accomplished in the last 7+ years?

Politico states: “While Trump’s insurgent candidacy has spurred record-setting Republican primary turnout in state after state, the early statistics show that the vast majority of those voters aren’t actually new to voting or to the Republican Party, but rather they are reliable past voters in general elections. They are only casting ballots in a Republican primary for the first time.” http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-polling-turnout-early-voting-data-213897 But even if that’s true, it is exciting because it bodes well for capturing voters who stayed home the last two elections (at least now they are motivated) and says nothing about independents and perhaps even Democrats who may vote for him. Granted, there may be Republicans who are going to vote Democratic. But I have written in previous blogs that there has been a paradigm shift in the electorate; I may be hopeful, but I believe that November will fool many people – pundits included (maybe me too, but I’m an optimist!). I do not think that either political party gets this. However, I think overall that the electorate is tired of being taken for granted; they are also tired of the career politician’s deceitful promises, their lying and their manipulations. We are taxed to cover absurd social programs, have experienced an influx of illegal aliens and are paying for their healthcare – but yet we have to pay for our own? Finally, we can’t forget the generous retirement packages these same career politicians have given themselves. Maybe we should help them take advantage of their retirement packages!

So here’s what’s at stake in November. Of primary importance are the nominations to the Supreme Court. Trump will nominate judges that know the law and how to interpret the Constitution; he has already released a list of those he would consider. He is a successful manager of money, people, and projects; he knows about spending, debt, and wealth. He understands the economy both domestic and foreign, job creation and the business world; he is financially independent and beholden to no one, especially donors – possibly one of the reasons why the current Establishment is afraid of him. He has an excellent attitude regarding our military – rebuilding it and especially, taking care of our veterans. He is – and this is important – an excellent negotiator. But most importantly, he loves America! In summary, he has real-world experience; he is resourceful, creative, and results driven to get the job done. He has viable accomplishments. He is not politically correct, and this is a tremendous part of his popularity: I believe people are fed up with political correctness. Granted this may make him a little “rough around the edges,” and it sometimes gets him into trouble. But because the MSM hates him, anything that he says that can be misconstrued, will be. Also, if he becomes President, many things will have to change. For one thing the largesse of the Washington arena will change; Trump is also probably “stepping on the toes” of others, maybe threatening their power base. I believe that there will be a major impact on the media; he routinely asserts himself and insults them (justifiably) for their lack of integrity, misrepresentation, being biased and agenda driven, and for their failure to report the facts honestly and accurately. And if he becomes president, it should serve as a message to the entire Establishment that the people have spoken and chosen their leader based on results and not their political ideology and agenda.

Because Mr. Trump is not a polished, political candidate, he needs to learn to tone down his presentations and off-the-cuff remarks. I think people believe he is genuine, but he needs to be more diplomatic and professional; maybe then the rest of the Republican Party will back him. We have serious problems in this country, and his tone is not as important as his ability to be President. Trump is the answer to the problems this nation faces. Unfortunately, it may come down to whom the electorate feels is the "lesser of the two evils"; it’s a shame when you have to vote for a candidate you may not like because you like the other one even less! Will he win? All the pundits have guessed wrong on most things until now. There is strong evidence that a lot of public opinion surveys may hide a segment of Trump’s supporters. Many voters are reluctant to admit in a live interview (vs. online survey) that they support Trump. This creates the possibility of a large block labeled the “silent majority” – does he have one?

In closing, the Republican Establishment has no one to blame but themselves for this situation. It has been posed whether Republican voters share the values and principles of the Republican Party; I would guess that the 10.7 million votes cast for Trump during the primaries say no. I believe that if Trump’s ground game is good, he will win. Here’s a sample of why: http://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/donald-trumps-campaign-draws-dedicated-followers          I think Mr. Trump hit the nail on the head when he said to the leaders: “This is too tough to do it alone, but you know what I think I'm going to be forced to….Be quiet. Just please be quiet. Don't talk. Please be quiet. Just be quiet ....We have to have our Republicans either stick together or let me just do it by myself."

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Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Find the Zebra

[Guest Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh Sr.]

Today I am going to write a little bit of a “fringe” blog because of the continued political machinations of the Establishment (including Cruz and Kasich). Right now the entire political arena on the Republican side of the house is being run by the Establishment as the same old same old. Consider this: “The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. The availability heuristic operates on the notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative solutions which are not as readily recalled. Subsequently, under the availability heuristic, people tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic It just seems that everybody has come to believe the Establishment that they know best and everybody should step aside and let the coronation of their candidate occur. So let’s look at some of the problems with this.

 

For one thing there is a vast majority of the electorate that feel disenfranchised; it’s almost as if they should not have even bothered to vote. Second, the entire Establishment is looking for ways to sabotage Trump – even if he wins the number of delegates necessary to be nominated in the first round. Third, if all else fails, let’s talk about changes to the rules, candidate substitution – including some people who may not have even run for the office this election cycle – whatever. Maybe the Establishment is talking about these things is to make Trump voters give up voting for him because they feel their votes won't count anyway (frustration, intimidation).

 

Another thing: there have been a number of lawsuits filed against Cruz because of his citizenship: http://excessofdemocracy.com/blog/2016/2/status-of-pending-natural-born-citizen-challenges-and-litigation-in-2016-presidential-election The question seems to turn on what it means to be a “natural born citizen.” So let’s look at what the Qualifications for the Office of President are: “Age and Citizenship requirements - US Constitution, Article II, Section 1:  No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States. http://www.presidentsusa.net/qualifications.html

 

The thing that I find curious – and I’m not a constitutional scholar – is that The Constitution never defines who is eligible to run for the office of president – only who “shall be eligible to the office of President!” If you look at of the lawsuits that have been filed, most have failed procedurally. It seems to me this will only be decided after the election – assuming Cruz wins – and whether he is eligible to assume the office – if he wins it!.

 

My conclusion: There is something very wrong with the way we select and fund our candidates. I think the 2016 primary experience should cause us to question the process: I think if nothing else Trump has exposed the political arena and all of its corruptness. Americans should be disgusted that their voting is irrelevant; the wealthy and powerful will decide who the candidate is – regardless of our voting preference. This has become especially clear since the Citizens United lawsuit opened the way for unlimited campaign contributions to Establishment candidates.

 

I have a couple of suggestions for what Mr. Trump needs to do. First, he has got to get ahead of everything and lead – he is leading from behind right now and reacting to the Establishment and Main Street stimuli. He should adapt his delivery. In direct marketing there is a rule called the 40/40/20 Rule: 40% audience, 40% offer, 20% Creative. Others have suggested modifications by splitting the percentage and adding Action. Another proposal was divided across four categories:

“We propose what we'll call the "4-Way Split Rule:" 25 percent audience, 25 percent offer, 25 percent creative, 25 percent technology.” http://www.imediaconnection.com/articles/ported-articles/red-dot-articles/2000/oct/rewriting-dm-rules-for-the-web/ He must repackage his presentation and make Cruz and Kasich irrelevant because he has got the winning message – not only for the electorate, but also for the electors at the Republican Convention. He has got to get out the vote – have a superior ground game. I believe that this election cycle will produce more votes cast than any previous election – both in number and in percentage of registered voters.

 

Finally, medical professionals are taught as students that when presented with symptoms, it’s best to pursue the most likely cause of those symptoms; that is what made the TV series “House” very popular: they would always go look for the bizarre! In medical terminology this is called a zebra: “Zebra is the American medical slang for arriving at an exotic medical diagnosis when a more commonplace explanation is more likely. It is shorthand for the aphorism coined in the late 1940s by Dr. Theodore Woodward, professor at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, who instructed his medical interns: ‘When you hear hoof beats, think of horses not zebras.’” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zebra_%28medicine%29 I think that right now Trump and his team are thinking horses (Establishment) and not zebras (outside of the box solutions)!

 

For example, I would propose that Trump begin floating names for the Office of Vice President. Talk about something that might cause Establishment people to jump out of a window – well, this might do it! Maybe he could open the door to selecting Cruz or Kasich. Probably very impractical, but it would perhaps demonstrate a feeling of forgiveness and open-mindedness. Also, I would drop names (and I’m sure his team has already begun developing his A-List) of somebody who might be female (maybe a Latino like Susana Martinez (NM)). Once again, this is designed to allow him to get ahead of the game – redirect the media thinking and the Establishment – these people would not necessarily be his candidates.

 

There should be two rules which govern his end game on the way to the convention: “…when you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” Sherlock Holmes, “The Adventure of the Blanched Soldier,” Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. Finally, keep it simple: “Occam's (or Ockham's) razor is a principle attributed to the 14th century logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham….The most useful statement of the principle for scientists is "when you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better."  http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/General/occam.html I hope that he finds the zebra!

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Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.