DEMOCRATS' WORST NIGHTMARE

[Published in Newsmax] 

Prior to President Joe Biden ending his 2024 re-election campaign, the Democrats worst nightmare was reliving their chaotic 1968 Chicago Convention.  Removing their perceived impediment for a November victory may force them to relive their chaotic 1924 New York Convention.

Biden’s departure unleashes countless questions.  Did he get bought off?  If so, by who and for how much?  Will there be a reckoning for all those in government and the media who lied about Biden’s condition?  If Biden is losing as a candidate, how cynical and anti-democratic is it to ignore the will of 14.4 million primary voters? If Biden is losing his mind, should he remain the President?

When the Democrats convene in New York on August 19, their 1968 Convention riots and chaos hangs over them. President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) dropped out of his re-election campaign after narrowly winning the New Hampshire primary against Minnesota Senate Eugene McCarthy (49%-42%).  Senator Robert F. Kennedy (RFK) announced his candidacy on March 16.  LBJ was being hammered by CBS News Anchor, Walter Cronkite, for mishandling the Vietnam War.  President Johnson understood the walls were closing in and only his departure would allow his wing of the Party to prevail.

On March 31, 1968, Johnson withdrew his candidacy.  Less than a month later, on April 27, his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey announced he was running.  After RFK’s assassination, the schism among the Democrats was irreconcilable. Tumult on the Convention floor was echoed in riots on the streets. Southern Democrats broke off to support Alabama Governor George Wallace’s Third-Party candidacy.  The internal strife among Democrats opened the door for Republican Richard Nixon to gain the Presidency.

The 1924 Democratic Convention was far worse than 1968.

When Democrats convened on June 24,1924 at Madison Square Garden in New York City they were in total disarray.

New York Governor, Al Smith, led among mainstream Democrats.  Some delegates were still loyal to failed 1920 candidate James Cox.  Unfortunately, the “progressive” and southern delegates were vehemently anti-Catholic and would do anything to stop Catholic Smith.  They rallied around former Wilson Treasury Secretary William McAdoo.  McAdoo was a true southerner, born in Georgia during the Civil War.  Rumors that McAdoo was a member of the Ku Klux Klan were bolstered by a huge Klan presence in New York.

Sensing opportunity in the three-way race, 28 other candidates entered the convention with pledged delegates.  The first ballot had McAdoo with a strong lead: 431.5 delegates to Smith’s 241.  Cox was a distant third with 59 delegates.  The other candidates were in single digits.

The Convention deadlocked.  Tempers flared.  The tumult on the Convention floor was echoed in the KKK’s mass demonstrations on behalf of McAdoo on the streets around the hall with what has become known as the “Klanbake”. 

More ballots followed with little movement.  It would take 103 ballots through July 9 before the exhausted delegates chose former West Virginia Congressman John W. Davis as their nominee.  It was the longest convention in American history. 

The Democrats couldn’t recover in time for the general election.  President Calvin Coolidge was elected with 382 electoral votes from 35 states.  Davis carried 12 states with 136 electoral votes.  Progressive Third-Party candidate, Senator Robert La Follette, carried his home state of Wisconsin with 13 electoral votes.

Democrats may be facing a similar fate if they cannot rally around Vice President Kamala Harris.

Democrats’ 2024 factions are as irreconcilable as those of 1968 and 1924.  They are only held together by their hatred of Trump. Radical leftists, under their “Progressive” banner, are already falling in line behind Harris.  Others within the Party point to horrendous polling on their policies and the terrible Biden-Harris record.  They also remember that Harris dropped out of the 2020 race in December 2019 because she polled less than one percent among Democrats.  Harris’s unprofessional image, word salads, and droves of staffers leaving her dysfunctional operation weigh against her viability.

Election variables are shifting every day, and even every hour.  What is certain is that Democrats are heading for a tumultuous time in New York City, unless they opt for anointing Harris. Democrats may pay the ultimate price in November in the way they stave-off chaos in August.

Apocalypse Now: July 13, 2020

[Guest Contributor - Donald G. Mutersbaugh Sr.]

I can’t help but to think about the Democrat Convention this summer. I might be wrong but I believe that there has been another paradigm shift in the electorate. I predicted one before, and I’m predicting another one now: the candidate of choice is going to be based on emotions, feelings and about who can beat Trump – but not qualifications.

I predicted in an earlier writing that neither Biden nor Sanders would get the nomination. This was based on Biden’s performance and Sanders – always the bridesmaid with his socialist programs. Further, I predicted that two women may head the ticket. While this may still come to pass (I believe that Elizabeth Warren will lose consideration because of her untruthfulness), I’m going to propose a different scenario for consideration: a brokered convention. While this hasn’t happened in either party since 1952 and despite all of the rewrite of the rules, the Democrat party may have no choice but to wrest its way through one this summer. The hatred of Trump is overwhelming.

The old monkey wrench seems to be the Democrat establishment; despite the popularity of Bernie, they do not feel his progressive socialism will win the hearts and minds of the people – therefore, he’s got to go. And poor old Joe, he’s caught up in a maelstrom of family problems and political gaffes. Plus: “Here’s something ‘everybody knows' that is almost certainly true. The two most widely respected figures in the Democratic Party — Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi — are worried that a Sanders nomination could be disastrous for the party in the fall, increasing the likelihood that Trump is reelected or that enough marginal House Democrats lose their seats to turn congressional control back to the GOP. Of course, the reason an outsider like Trump took over the Republican Party is the same reason a socialist like Sanders might take over the Democratic Party: Party leaders simply do not wield the same levers of power in an era of online ideological movements. But that doesn’t mean they have no leverage.” https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/25/why-bernie-sanders-might-not-lock-democratic-nomination-117339

“Imagine that Sanders comes into the convention with a weak plurality, far short of 1,991 delegates. When he asserts that the candidate with the most delegates should be awarded the delegation, and rails against the establishment, he is confronted with his comments from 2016 like this one.

“The responsibility that superdelegates have is to decide what is best for this country and what is best for the Democratic Party,” Sanders said. “And if those superdelegates conclude that Bernie Sanders is the best candidate, the strongest candidate to defeat Trump and anybody else, yes, I would very much welcome their support.”

“His brand is suddenly tarnished – he looks like every other self-serving politician.” (Ibid) Oops! So, everybody has to consider what other likely strategies could come from this.

Remember: this is an emotional election and not a qualification election. So, qualifications aside what would be the most popular ticket (it is evident that one candidate alone is not going to shift this).

In a previous article that I wrote, I predicted that Michelle Obama would run for the presidency in 2024 – and that the interim time period would be spent grooming her for that event. What if the establishment proposed a ticket that had her as the vice president and the next most eligible candidate at this time for president? Bloomberg and Obama? Or how about Buttigieg and Obama? 

Even more outrageous – despite her record – could be Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama be the most reasonable compromise at this time? I believe that any ticket like this basically decided by the superdelegates could possibly cause Trump a problem especially if it were presented with an outstanding cabinet of people – perhaps, those no-Trumpers that have recently received the boot from the Trump administration.

This action by the establishment would obviously all but destroy the Democrat party. It would be a political calculation of how many of Bernie’s people would leave the party and how many would rejoin the party because of the excitement generated with this ticket. I have not seen any polls that have attempted to project these numbers – either coming or going. But over the long run, if the strategy were successful, I think the Democrat party would heal very quickly. I’m sure as part of this deal, all horse-trading aside, Bernie would be taken care of with some type of a political plum and indebtedness from the party leaders for his part in taking down Trump – however indirectly this may have occurred.

Now to return to the part about this being an emotional election. The Democrat party is going to have a hard time dislodging an incumbent president whose accomplishments and current popularity are so high. 

“Americans are more positive about the state of the nation than they have been in over a decade, and Trump and the GOP appear to be benefiting. Still, in this era of extreme party polarization, that puts his approval rating at 49%, as Republicans' already high ratings have risen further while Democrats' negative opinions of him aren't budging. Independents' ratings of Trump have improved, but they are still more likely to disapprove than approve of the job he is doing.

“The significance of the trend is clear. An approval rating near 50% greatly increases Trump's chances of being re-elected, a prospect that seemed unlikely with his approval stuck near 40% for most of his term.” https://news.gallup.com/poll/286280/trump-job-approval-steady.aspx 

There was one other poll taken recently that maybe speaks volumes to Trump’s reelection prospects: “New High of 90% of Americans Satisfied With Personal Life” https://news.gallup.com/poll/284285/new-high-americans-satisfied-personal-life.aspx When you examine the individual cohorts of this poll, the Democrat party faces a daunting task indeed! 

This will be an interesting election to see which matters most to the American people: emotions or results!

Donald G. Mutersbaugh, Sr. earned his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree from Mary Washington College. He is the former Associate Administrator of Information Resources for the U.S House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich.